You'd be surprised. A good poker player will bluff a lot. Up to 1/3 of the time on the river when he has nothing, more when he has a draw before the river card,

You'd be surprised. A good poker player will bluff a lot. Up to 1/3 of the time on the river when he has nothing, more when he has a draw before the river card, and almost always with a strong draw. There is no way to exploit this kind of strategy because as long as you're not bluffing every time (remember, he still has it 2/3 of the time or gets there before the river) you have to consider that he's not bluffing sometimes. I guess the business analogy is that a founder will bluff more often if he knows there is a lot of real potential.