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Not true. They will once they understand the significance of the Westminster parliament losing 52 Scottish Labour MPs which would leave the rest of the UK with

by vixin 12y ago

Not true. They will once they understand the significance of the Westminster parliament losing 52 Scottish Labour MPs which would leave the rest of the UK with a strong Tory majority. If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign.

gadders 12y ago
"most likely to be Labour" - er, what? Ed Milliband? I would say it's 50/50 as to who the next PM would be.
nicholassmith 12y ago
"If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign." I doubt it, if Scotland votes yes it'd probably cripple Cameron's career, not whoever becomes PM after the vote.
- chrisdevereux 12y ago
  I sometimes wonder if this was exactly Osbourne's plan
  - nicholassmith 12y ago
    Part of me wants to say that gives Osbourne a lot more credit than he deserves, part of me thinks he's probably shrewd enough to have a go at it with some level of success.
  - crapshoot101 12y ago
    You think Boris wouldn't be the heir apparent in that case, not Osbourne?
vidarh 12y ago
As far as I understand, there's only been a couple of elections where losing the Labour majority in Scotland would have made a difference for Labour. It's true that a Labour government would likely have a far smaller majority without the Scottish MPs, but when Labour has won, it has usually been with far greater majorities than that.
- blueskin_ 12y ago
  It would have in the most recent general election, while the general consensus is that hung parliaments[1] are only going to become more common if not the norm in future. [1]That is, no clear majority, requiring a coalition government
netcan 12y ago
If independence happens (I don't think it will), this will be re-writing of borders of a country long term. The political paradigm will adapt. Long term, the Westminster system gravitates towards a two main party or coalition equilibrium. Scottish Labour will be gone. Maybe the Tories will pull right and cede some of the centre. Maybe Labour will pull right.
glomph 12y ago
This is actually a pretty minimal effect historically: http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png

by vixin 12y ago

gadders 12y ago

"most likely to be Labour" - er, what? Ed Milliband? I would say it's 50/50 as to who the next PM would be.

nicholassmith 12y ago

"If the vote is YES the Prime Minister in office when independence takes effect (most likely to be Labour) would certainly have to resign." I doubt it, if Scotland votes yes it'd probably cripple Cameron's career, not whoever becomes PM after the vote.

chrisdevereux 12y ago
I sometimes wonder if this was exactly Osbourne's plan
- nicholassmith 12y ago
  Part of me wants to say that gives Osbourne a lot more credit than he deserves, part of me thinks he's probably shrewd enough to have a go at it with some level of success.
- crapshoot101 12y ago
  You think Boris wouldn't be the heir apparent in that case, not Osbourne?

vidarh 12y ago

As far as I understand, there's only been a couple of elections where losing the Labour majority in Scotland would have made a difference for Labour. It's true that a Labour government would likely have a far smaller majority without the Scottish MPs, but when Labour has won, it has usually been with far greater majorities than that.

blueskin_ 12y ago
It would have in the most recent general election, while the general consensus is that hung parliaments[1] are only going to become more common if not the norm in future. [1]That is, no clear majority, requiring a coalition government

netcan 12y ago

If independence happens (I don't think it will), this will be re-writing of borders of a country long term. The political paradigm will adapt. Long term, the Westminster system gravitates towards a two main party or coalition equilibrium. Scottish Labour will be gone. Maybe the Tories will pull right and cede some of the centre. Maybe Labour will pull right.

glomph 12y ago

This is actually a pretty minimal effect historically: http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png