I'm not sure selection is a good way to think this particular problem, or management in general. Selection operates by replicating or destroying an immutable u

I'm not sure selection is a good way to think this particular problem, or management in general. Selection operates by replicating or destroying an immutable unit (a genetic variant). People cannot be replicated, only fired. Furthermore, people are not immutable; most importantly, they can learn from their mistakes, and they can be taught. Someone who fails at forecasting something correctly the first time might be someone who goes back, looks deeply at why they were wrong, and improves their method. Someone who succeeds might merely have gotten lucky. These people will not be identified correctly by a selection mechanism. Time and judgment, collaboration and the inculcation of expertise seem better tools in this regard.