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You don't understand how DC works. On a given issue analysis and projections are produced by numerous agencies. For example a Country desk at State may delive
by rrggrr 12y ago
You don't understand how DC works. On a given issue analysis and projections are produced by numerous agencies. For example a Country desk at State may deliver an accurate estimate, but another group at state may water it down, or it may be stuffed by a competing estimate from CIA. Since its politically safer to bury your head in the sand than it is to fight for an estimate, the process is ripe for manipulation. All this concept does is pass the buck without - apparently - any comparison to all the analysis produced.
Tl;dr - This solution speaks to the failings of the intel process and not the people.
- jacques_chester 12y agoTetlock's work was based on individuals giving unfiltered predictions.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]