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Simply keeping those who successfully predict events over time will do nothing but end with one incredibly lucky person, who will then proceed to get their futu
by empressplay 12y ago
Simply keeping those who successfully predict events over time will do nothing but end with one incredibly lucky person, who will then proceed to get their future predictions wrong most of the time, or at least as much as the group you started with.
- jacques_chester 12y agoI think the competitions are structured to show the difference between distinction and calibration. Submitting outlier predictions constantly eventually gives you the former but not the latter. The easiest prediction in the short term is "Yesterday's Weather". Most of the time, most things don't change much.