3 ms·

These aren't independent events. The OP may be right, but for the wrong reasons.

• lutusp 12y ago
  > These aren't independent events. I agree. There are a number of ways this could be true -- a person has more experience, is more likely to succeed in later tries because of being seasoned -- or might even be so discouraged by a first failure that he is then programmed to fail. But to a first approximation, the tries are independent. It only shows the limited applicability of theoretical analyses to real-world events.