4 ms·
> According to the author: - 18% success rate for time founders - 20% success rate after that ... so just trying 5 times should assure 1 success. Not according
by lutusp 12y ago
> According to the author: - 18% success rate for time founders - 20% success rate after that ... so just trying 5 times should assure 1 success.
Not according to the Binomial theorem. For a success probability of .2 per independent trial and a binary outcome (i.e. success or failure, no intermediate states):
Trials Probability of >= 1 successes
-------------------------------------
1 .20
2 .36
3 .38
4 .48
5 .67
10 .89
100 .99
But the probability of success never equals 1.
Source: http://arachnoid.com/binomial_probability http://arachnoid.com/binomial_probability
- gfodor 12y agoThese aren't independent events. The OP may be right, but for the wrong reasons.
- lutusp 12y ago> These aren't independent events. I agree. There are a number of ways this could be true -- a person has more experience, is more likely to succeed in later tries because of being seasoned -- or might even be so discouraged by a first failure that he is then programmed to fail. But to a first approximation, the tries are independent. It only shows the limited applicability of theoretical analyses to real-world events.