Yea, I think even if people know this they don't intuitively grasp how far off they are. Five tries at 20% success rate is only 67% overall. That's about the sa

Yea, I think even if people know this they don't intuitively grasp how far off they are. Five tries at 20% success rate is only 67% overall. That's about the same odds you have to win two rounds of russian roulette. To have an overall 99% chance (what we might conversationally say is a guarantee), it'd take 21 tries.