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There isn't one. The exchange rate between capital and labor (i.e. the most important economic variable in the global human society) is far out of whack. It's

There isn't one. The exchange rate between capital and labor (i.e. the most important economic variable in the global human society) is far out of whack. It's a 9/11-scale moral catastrophe [0] and has been for quite a while. It's at a low point, because the concentration of capital has made those with connections to it into a set of corrupt gatekeepers with more power than any government, and more than any individual and most businesses. Anyway, possibly 90 percent of top-talent people are doing work far below their capability. Travel overseas to some poorer ("third world") countries and it's 95 or 99+ percent. I know math majors in the Philippines and even in Hong Kong (which is not poor at all) working call-center jobs. [0] Yes, depriving billions and impoverishing a significant subset of them (obviously, the direct victims of Silicon Valley chicanery-- see the Schmidt/Jobs collusions-- are rarely impoverished themselves; but people in other countries suffer more severely from the devaluation of labor) constitutes "9/11-scale moral catastrophe". I invoke 9/11 because it started a war. Maybe this will, too. Google's "free massages" have become a lightning rod for this sort of supposed spoiling of top technical talent. When I was there, you got one per year (on your birthday) plus one for starting out. It's not like you get free massages whenever you need to relax. It's not devoid of value, but it comes out to about $75 per year-- a tiny marketing expense for getting "free massages" out there. In other words, while top talent's approach value (and, one can derive, market value and leverage) isn't high, it isn't zero. Right now, talent and capital exist, both, in abundance. We have shitloads of both in this world. The problem is a small parasitic set of well-connected influence peddlers and bureaucrats who've managed to become gatekeepers in access to that capital (often, passive investment capital that isn't theirs). The enemy isn't "the rich" (there are plenty of good rich people) or governments (indeed, many national governments and militaries will be our allies when we finally go to war on the global elite). It's the fact that despite an abundance of resources, a small number of players have developed, through upper-crust favor-trading rather than merit, an egregious and malignant control over their distribution. There's a term for this: corruption. But with the number of smart people out there (especially in the poorer countries) who are working in dead-end jobs, there is definitely not a "global talent crunch". It's a corruption problem.

yummyfajitas 12y ago
Travel overseas to some poorer ("third world") countries and it's 95 or 99+ percent. This. If you want to find talent for your startup, go abroad. I recently worked with a startup that needed to build some more or less straightforward business apps - mainly a UI challenge. Getting top talent for the UI portion (read: the part not doing financial calculations) of the app took about a month. Paying "way above market" in the Pune (India) might cost you 2 lac/month (about $4k). Pay a bit above market, create a good work culture [1], and you've got talent. (If anyone wants more info on doing this, contact me.) [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7303217 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7303217
bowlofpetunias 12y ago
You're simplifying the term "talent". I know a company that does their tech in the Philippines (not cheap off-shoring, a real, well-funded part of the company). Yeah, plenty of CS majors but still quite hard to find actual talent (let alone talent that produces results), and the best are leaving the country. Education does not equal talent. It doesn't in the West (hence, local shortage of good developers), and the same applies to the rest of the world. The fact that the problem of the corrupt concentration of capital is real doesn't mean the lack of talent is artificial.
- michaelochurch 12y ago
  the best are leaving the country. Filipino programmer salaries are pretty terrible (about 35k PHP per month, which is around $10,000 per year) but not all of the best are leaving. The US is pretty damn hard to get into if you're not from a family with assets. Japan treats Filipinos like shit (it's functionally impossible, and I've heard it may be illegal, to look for another job while employed, as a non-citizen, with a Japanese firm). Hong Kong and Singapore pay more than $10k, but still offer crap wages compared to the sky-high cost-of-living, thanks to third-world despots, corrupt officials, drug kingpins, and assorted dirtbags from all over the world buying real estate in those cities (as in London and New York) to launder their money. Singapore and HK are also disgustingly employer-friendly (worse than the US, not quite as bad as the Arab slave states). I know Hong Kongers who count themselves lucky to get 2 weeks of paid vacation (taking unpaid leave is very stigmatized in Asia). I won't even get into the Arab slave states, where Indians and Bangladeshis "look like construction workers" (and won't advance) and Filipinos "look like maids" (ditto) and even Americans have mini-panic-attacks every time they write a check (an unintentional bounced check equals jail; someone should seriously fucking invade that country and liberate the people jailed for being unlucky). Australia seems to be the hot destination for Asian talent-- nearby, not that hard to get into, and paying quite well-- but it's a small country (24 million, which makes it smaller than some Asian cities) and will not be able to absorb all of the underemployed smart people coming up right now. I've actually been studying this, because it involves a business opportunity I'm looking into. About 30-50% of the people you'd consider "top talent" leave the Philippines. That's a lot of brain drain, but it leaves a large number who (for a variety of reasons, such as family or patriotism or preference of the tropical climate) stay. Right now, they're getting shit wages unless they can start their own business (but if your family has that kind of assets, emigrating to the US becomes a real option). Education does not equal talent. Sure. That is true everywhere in the world, and I think we agree on that. The fact that the problem of the corrupt concentration of capital is real doesn't mean the lack of talent is artificial. Talent is abundant but it's extremely difficult to find, because you have to sift through untalented pretenders with better social skills, and that's true no matter where you are in the world. (You typically need to hire someone like me who are smart and experienced enough to assess it, and we're even harder to find.) It's like dating. Decent, single $GENDER_OF_INTEREST are paradoxically both common (the bulk number of them is large) and rare (the broken people go on more dates, so adverse selection plays a role). Why do large companies, when staffing middle and upper management roles, acqui-hire utter mediocrity at panic prices instead of promoting from within? Their middle management filters are too broken to let them spot talent at the bottom, and they become like hoarders who have copious possessions but have to buy a new coat each winter because their houses are out of order. Talent is like fresh water. It's abundant, globally speaking, but (a) it's sometimes far away, (b) there's a lot of less-fresh water one shouldn't use or drink, and (c) there's still less of it than one might conceivably want. Of course, I've stepped around the obvious fact that most businesspeople who complain about a "talent shortage" are just stingy bastards who can't stand the (slowly rising) price of talent.

yummyfajitas 12y ago

Travel overseas to some poorer ("third world") countries and it's 95 or 99+ percent. This. If you want to find talent for your startup, go abroad. I recently worked with a startup that needed to build some more or less straightforward business apps - mainly a UI challenge. Getting top talent for the UI portion (read: the part not doing financial calculations) of the app took about a month. Paying "way above market" in the Pune (India) might cost you 2 lac/month (about $4k). Pay a bit above market, create a good work culture [1], and you've got talent. (If anyone wants more info on doing this, contact me.) [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7303217 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7303217

bowlofpetunias 12y ago

You're simplifying the term "talent". I know a company that does their tech in the Philippines (not cheap off-shoring, a real, well-funded part of the company). Yeah, plenty of CS majors but still quite hard to find actual talent (let alone talent that produces results), and the best are leaving the country. Education does not equal talent. It doesn't in the West (hence, local shortage of good developers), and the same applies to the rest of the world. The fact that the problem of the corrupt concentration of capital is real doesn't mean the lack of talent is artificial.

michaelochurch 12y ago
the best are leaving the country. Filipino programmer salaries are pretty terrible (about 35k PHP per month, which is around $10,000 per year) but not all of the best are leaving. The US is pretty damn hard to get into if you're not from a family with assets. Japan treats Filipinos like shit (it's functionally impossible, and I've heard it may be illegal, to look for another job while employed, as a non-citizen, with a Japanese firm). Hong Kong and Singapore pay more than $10k, but still offer crap wages compared to the sky-high cost-of-living, thanks to third-world despots, corrupt officials, drug kingpins, and assorted dirtbags from all over the world buying real estate in those cities (as in London and New York) to launder their money. Singapore and HK are also disgustingly employer-friendly (worse than the US, not quite as bad as the Arab slave states). I know Hong Kongers who count themselves lucky to get 2 weeks of paid vacation (taking unpaid leave is very stigmatized in Asia). I won't even get into the Arab slave states, where Indians and Bangladeshis "look like construction workers" (and won't advance) and Filipinos "look like maids" (ditto) and even Americans have mini-panic-attacks every time they write a check (an unintentional bounced check equals jail; someone should seriously fucking invade that country and liberate the people jailed for being unlucky). Australia seems to be the hot destination for Asian talent-- nearby, not that hard to get into, and paying quite well-- but it's a small country (24 million, which makes it smaller than some Asian cities) and will not be able to absorb all of the underemployed smart people coming up right now. I've actually been studying this, because it involves a business opportunity I'm looking into. About 30-50% of the people you'd consider "top talent" leave the Philippines. That's a lot of brain drain, but it leaves a large number who (for a variety of reasons, such as family or patriotism or preference of the tropical climate) stay. Right now, they're getting shit wages unless they can start their own business (but if your family has that kind of assets, emigrating to the US becomes a real option). Education does not equal talent. Sure. That is true everywhere in the world, and I think we agree on that. The fact that the problem of the corrupt concentration of capital is real doesn't mean the lack of talent is artificial. Talent is abundant but it's extremely difficult to find, because you have to sift through untalented pretenders with better social skills, and that's true no matter where you are in the world. (You typically need to hire someone like me who are smart and experienced enough to assess it, and we're even harder to find.) It's like dating. Decent, single $GENDER_OF_INTEREST are paradoxically both common (the bulk number of them is large) and rare (the broken people go on more dates, so adverse selection plays a role). Why do large companies, when staffing middle and upper management roles, acqui-hire utter mediocrity at panic prices instead of promoting from within? Their middle management filters are too broken to let them spot talent at the bottom, and they become like hoarders who have copious possessions but have to buy a new coat each winter because their houses are out of order. Talent is like fresh water. It's abundant, globally speaking, but (a) it's sometimes far away, (b) there's a lot of less-fresh water one shouldn't use or drink, and (c) there's still less of it than one might conceivably want. Of course, I've stepped around the obvious fact that most businesspeople who complain about a "talent shortage" are just stingy bastards who can't stand the (slowly rising) price of talent.