5 ms·

I think the Westminster government had no choice. David Cameron was dithering about the decision to allow a vote on independence, and Alex Salmond just went and

by m0nty 12y ago

I think the Westminster government had no choice. David Cameron was dithering about the decision to allow a vote on independence, and Alex Salmond just went and announced a date. What's Cameron going to do, forbid it?

jarek 12y ago
Why forbid it when you can just ignore it? E.g. Spanish government said they wouldn't recognize results of a Catalonia independence vote. (Whether they actually would is another matter.)
- m0nty 12y ago
  That would symbolise everything the independence movement asserts about the arrogance of Westminster politicians and their alleged couldn't-give-a-damn attitude towards the Scots. Personally, I think there would be riots. If there is a legally-held and popularly-supported vote in Scotland which decides in favour of independence, it would end badly if Westminster somehow decided to declare it null and void or just pretend it didn't happen.
  - asuffield 12y ago
    Here's some irony for you: the Tories, who are the people the "independence movement" is complaining about, would gleefully sign off on Scottish independence because it would give them complete and permanent dominance over the rest of the UK - without the Scottish MPs there is no possibility of any other party controlling the UK government. (Post-independence Scotland would likely have a very unhappy experience negotiating with a permanent Tory government) LDs will back the outcome of the referendum whatever happens. Labour are the only party that might attempt to ignore the referendum because Scottish independence will end their existence.
    - m0nty 12y ago
      I hadn't really thought through the implications for the remainder of the UK, you've made some interesting points. In terms of international politics, I could see it diminishing Britain's status considerably.
      - sgt101 12y ago
        Well, maybe, I guess by Britain you mean England, Wales and Northern Ireland? My main concern is what does this mean for the position of Wales and NI in the union? I think that it will diminish Wales as an entity, and lord alone knows how it will play in NI. I'm English, I think England will muddle along, a bit like a sort of very militant and eccentric version of Holland. No bad thing that...
    - jarek 12y ago
      > Labour are the only party that might attempt to ignore the referendum because Scottish independence will end their existence. Labour would have gotten elected quite frequently discounting Scottish votes. This link has been posted further downstream by nmeofthestate but worth reposting here: http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php
    - sarabob 12y ago
      Not true, sorry. Without the scottish seats, the only real difference in the last 50 years is that the current coalition would be pure-tory. See http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png (from http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php referencing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election_results_in_Scotland http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_ele...)
  - jarek 12y ago
    > That would symbolise everything the independence movement asserts about the arrogance of Westminster politicians and their alleged couldn't-give-a-damn attitude towards the Scots. What, any more than Maggie? I agree that it would be extremely unpopular in Scotland, but there's ways to spin independence referendum results for propaganda in the outside world. Claims of unclear/biased question, claims of voter eligibility "irregularities", claims of bad faith independence negotiations, etc. If push comes to shove who's going to ostracize UK over 5 million people? U.S. wants HMNB Clyde to stay, big European countries will be afraid of UK leaving EU, and the UK doesn't listen to the rest anyhow. If UK wants to hold onto Scotland against its will they will, but let's hope they don't. (I favour independence if Scots wish.)
  - mdasen 12y ago
    All great, logical points. But that's not how governments usually operate when it comes to nationalist movements. Spain is fighting tooth-and-nail to prevent Catalan independence. Catalan independence has much greater support than Scottish independence, but the Spanish government is determined to stop it. It looks like the Spanish government will even try to punish them if they leave (doing their best to deny them EU membership and the like and probably not recognizing them as a country even if they have independence). By contrast (and despite some early posturing), the UK will want a Scotland that is well-integrated and will obviously recognize it. But even the UK hasn't cared about popular sentiment for independence in the past. Look at the United States, Ireland, and India. But I think the UK has changed a lot and recognizes that it can get much of the same benefits without needing to rule over places. Frankly, it's a mature attitude to notice that you can succeed without force. And it's that maturity that's going to make this a mostly good experience regardless of the result. If Scotland becomes independent, the UK will try to make it as easy as possible so that Scottish and other British people will barely notice a change. It's best for the UK if an independent Scotland has no barriers for their people and firms. Similarly, if Scotland remains in the UK, politicians seem to recognize the desire for even more devolved powers to the Scottish Government. Normally, countries don't recognize a piece of their land becoming independent easily. Popular sentiment and even riots often don't deter countries from asserting dominance. Heck, sometimes countries even want to take over pieces of land that are currently independent where popular sentiment is 95%+ against being taken over. Yes, the UK government is doing the pragmatic thing where "it doesn't have any other choice". But loads of other countries are faced with the same issue and they're not facing it with that sort of logical pragmatism.
    - Flenser 12y ago
      It will also set a good example of how it's possible to handle nationalist movements, particularly if Scotland becomes independent, and would give the UK and Scottish governments a lot of clout when mediating nationalist disputes in future.
    - PJDK 12y ago
      An interesting aside on this is how Spain would treat an independent Scotland. They might decide to try and make an example of how miserable life could be for a region that becomes independent.
celticninja 12y ago
They could have ignored it easily, Alex Salmond announcing it would be worthless without an agreement from the 3 main UK political parties to adhere to the outcome. They agreed and that was why Alex Salmond announced the referendum. He had to essentially get permission first. Probably worth reading this if you have a dog in the fight: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/sites/default/files/papers/Scotland%27s%20Decision%20final%20ebook.pdf http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pap...

by m0nty 12y ago

jarek 12y ago

Why forbid it when you can just ignore it? E.g. Spanish government said they wouldn't recognize results of a Catalonia independence vote. (Whether they actually would is another matter.)

m0nty 12y ago
That would symbolise everything the independence movement asserts about the arrogance of Westminster politicians and their alleged couldn't-give-a-damn attitude towards the Scots. Personally, I think there would be riots. If there is a legally-held and popularly-supported vote in Scotland which decides in favour of independence, it would end badly if Westminster somehow decided to declare it null and void or just pretend it didn't happen.
- asuffield 12y ago
  Here's some irony for you: the Tories, who are the people the "independence movement" is complaining about, would gleefully sign off on Scottish independence because it would give them complete and permanent dominance over the rest of the UK - without the Scottish MPs there is no possibility of any other party controlling the UK government. (Post-independence Scotland would likely have a very unhappy experience negotiating with a permanent Tory government) LDs will back the outcome of the referendum whatever happens. Labour are the only party that might attempt to ignore the referendum because Scottish independence will end their existence.
  - m0nty 12y ago
    I hadn't really thought through the implications for the remainder of the UK, you've made some interesting points. In terms of international politics, I could see it diminishing Britain's status considerably.
    - sgt101 12y ago
      Well, maybe, I guess by Britain you mean England, Wales and Northern Ireland? My main concern is what does this mean for the position of Wales and NI in the union? I think that it will diminish Wales as an entity, and lord alone knows how it will play in NI. I'm English, I think England will muddle along, a bit like a sort of very militant and eccentric version of Holland. No bad thing that...
  - jarek 12y ago
    > Labour are the only party that might attempt to ignore the referendum because Scottish independence will end their existence. Labour would have gotten elected quite frequently discounting Scottish votes. This link has been posted further downstream by nmeofthestate but worth reposting here: http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php
  - sarabob 12y ago
    Not true, sorry. Without the scottish seats, the only real difference in the last 50 years is that the current coalition would be pure-tory. See http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png http://theweebluebook.com/assets/images/uk-govts.png (from http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php http://theweebluebook.com/principles-and-politics.php referencing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_election_results_in_Scotland http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_United_Kingdom_general_ele...)
- jarek 12y ago
  > That would symbolise everything the independence movement asserts about the arrogance of Westminster politicians and their alleged couldn't-give-a-damn attitude towards the Scots. What, any more than Maggie? I agree that it would be extremely unpopular in Scotland, but there's ways to spin independence referendum results for propaganda in the outside world. Claims of unclear/biased question, claims of voter eligibility "irregularities", claims of bad faith independence negotiations, etc. If push comes to shove who's going to ostracize UK over 5 million people? U.S. wants HMNB Clyde to stay, big European countries will be afraid of UK leaving EU, and the UK doesn't listen to the rest anyhow. If UK wants to hold onto Scotland against its will they will, but let's hope they don't. (I favour independence if Scots wish.)
- mdasen 12y ago
  All great, logical points. But that's not how governments usually operate when it comes to nationalist movements. Spain is fighting tooth-and-nail to prevent Catalan independence. Catalan independence has much greater support than Scottish independence, but the Spanish government is determined to stop it. It looks like the Spanish government will even try to punish them if they leave (doing their best to deny them EU membership and the like and probably not recognizing them as a country even if they have independence). By contrast (and despite some early posturing), the UK will want a Scotland that is well-integrated and will obviously recognize it. But even the UK hasn't cared about popular sentiment for independence in the past. Look at the United States, Ireland, and India. But I think the UK has changed a lot and recognizes that it can get much of the same benefits without needing to rule over places. Frankly, it's a mature attitude to notice that you can succeed without force. And it's that maturity that's going to make this a mostly good experience regardless of the result. If Scotland becomes independent, the UK will try to make it as easy as possible so that Scottish and other British people will barely notice a change. It's best for the UK if an independent Scotland has no barriers for their people and firms. Similarly, if Scotland remains in the UK, politicians seem to recognize the desire for even more devolved powers to the Scottish Government. Normally, countries don't recognize a piece of their land becoming independent easily. Popular sentiment and even riots often don't deter countries from asserting dominance. Heck, sometimes countries even want to take over pieces of land that are currently independent where popular sentiment is 95%+ against being taken over. Yes, the UK government is doing the pragmatic thing where "it doesn't have any other choice". But loads of other countries are faced with the same issue and they're not facing it with that sort of logical pragmatism.
  - Flenser 12y ago
    It will also set a good example of how it's possible to handle nationalist movements, particularly if Scotland becomes independent, and would give the UK and Scottish governments a lot of clout when mediating nationalist disputes in future.
  - PJDK 12y ago
    An interesting aside on this is how Spain would treat an independent Scotland. They might decide to try and make an example of how miserable life could be for a region that becomes independent.

celticninja 12y ago

They could have ignored it easily, Alex Salmond announcing it would be worthless without an agreement from the 3 main UK political parties to adhere to the outcome. They agreed and that was why Alex Salmond announced the referendum. He had to essentially get permission first. Probably worth reading this if you have a dog in the fight: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/sites/default/files/papers/Scotland%27s%20Decision%20final%20ebook.pdf http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pap...