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> about 1% better than Lending Club forecast they would. I attribute that to an improving economy. Probably just statistical variation.

• 11thEarlOfMar 12y ago
  It was over 120 loans. All at 17.25% with a forecast 4.95% default rate. 0.5% fees. Actual return after 18 months is 13.85% with 5 defaults.
  • foobarqux 12y ago
    Maybe not, I don't feel like modelling the math right now to see if it could be statistical variation. (I don't understand your numbers though. Forecast return was higher than actual?)
    • db48x 12y ago
      Presumably because there were 5 defaults when 5.94 were predicted. On the other hand, if any of those 120 loans are still outstanding, then they could still default later.
  • michaelt 12y ago
    Well, 4.95% defaults on 120 loans would be 5.94 loans. And presumably you can't have 0.94 of a default, so we have to round to an integer. In other words if you have 5 defaults, you're doing better by the smallest possible margin :)