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Fantastic Blog, I run an online football game and try to use advanced analytics to generate proper games. Going to rummage through your archive and see if there

Fantastic Blog, I run an online football game and try to use advanced analytics to generate proper games. Going to rummage through your archive and see if there's anything usable for me, trying to generate accurate games. Thanks for the work. Edit: Example, this blog post is amazing for my work. http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03/classifying-wrs-tes-and-rbs-by-where.html http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03/classifying-wrs-tes-... You provide the code you ran(!!!) so I can run it myself against the data I generate, and then validate that I am matching the actual data. Incredible. Going to continue moving through the article, but that's at least one piece of data I can use to compare in a way I never have before. Edit 2: http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/10/qbs-dont-have-passing-rhythm.html http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/10/qbs-dont-have-passin... is interesting, but you have to do any QB completion data with completion % based on distance thrown. QB completion is meaningless without incorporating distance. Edit 3: http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/09/not-all-fumbles-are-created-equal.html http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/09/not-all-fumbles-are-... is data I can incorporate today. Currently I have a simple random recovery generator that is 50/50 due to FO's essentially random remarks regarding fumbles. Now I will change that to be a formula based on field position. That is direct improvement to my work, thank you! Edit 4: http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/08/quarterback-rating-i-year-to-year.html http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/08/quarterback-rating-i... is again plagued by completion %, which QB rating uses. Many Qbs improve or decline their QB rating, while actually being better QBs or worse depending on the yardage thrown. I could give many examples of QBs with decent Completion %s that are horrible because they throw short passes. Not bad, just another note that distance is the foundation of completion % and without that, it's essentially bad data. One interesting analysis would be plotting the distance thrown on passes over careers, and see if this is a good indicator of improvement. Edit 5: http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-s... is interesting, I distinctly remember that Completion % per yardage drops significantly inside 20 yards. I don't have the data on hand, but that's an interesting wrinkle to consider. I think that may have been FO.

philsnow 12y ago
> Edit 2: http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/10/qbs-dont-have-passin.. http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/10/qbs-dont-have-passin.... is interesting, but you have to do any QB completion data with completion % based on distance thrown. QB completion is meaningless without incorporating distance. I had a similar thought; seems that he should bucket at least by remaining yards to get the first down as well as field position. Imagine an 8-yard pass completion after a 1st and ten: many teams will attempt a deep pass, hoping to pick up the first down with a short play in case of an incompletion. That deep pass is a very different play and probably has a different completion likelihood. Likewise, consider passes from your own 20 vs their 20 (that is, 80 yards of field left before the end zone vs 20): my intuition says that the latter pass has lower likelihood of completion, because the field is shorter and the defenders have less ground to cover. So, it might actually be that "rhythm" exists, but only in long field positions or only on long drives.
streptomycin 12y ago
You forgot to plug your game, http://deeproute.com/ http://deeproute.com/ :)

philsnow 12y ago

> Edit 2: http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/10/qbs-dont-have-passin.. http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/10/qbs-dont-have-passin.... is interesting, but you have to do any QB completion data with completion % based on distance thrown. QB completion is meaningless without incorporating distance. I had a similar thought; seems that he should bucket at least by remaining yards to get the first down as well as field position. Imagine an 8-yard pass completion after a 1st and ten: many teams will attempt a deep pass, hoping to pick up the first down with a short play in case of an incompletion. That deep pass is a very different play and probably has a different completion likelihood. Likewise, consider passes from your own 20 vs their 20 (that is, 80 yards of field left before the end zone vs 20): my intuition says that the latter pass has lower likelihood of completion, because the field is shorter and the defenders have less ground to cover. So, it might actually be that "rhythm" exists, but only in long field positions or only on long drives.

streptomycin 12y ago

You forgot to plug your game, http://deeproute.com/ http://deeproute.com/ :)