11 ms·
Card value calculation should look not just at mana but also at the card itself as a cost. Something like Wisp might be great value/mana but it's appalling valu
by larksimian 12y ago
Card value calculation should look not just at mana but also at the card itself as a cost. Something like Wisp might be great value/mana but it's appalling value/card. That's just obvious and simply to fix. Keep in mind the Warlock hero power(2 mana and 2 self hero damage to draw a card) as a reference point for the value of 1 point of 'card'.
The worst error, I think, is the the assumption that points increase linearly in value. Hearthstone has clear thresholds of usefulness. You'd almost always want to draft a 4attack/5hp for 4 mana creature, you'd rarely want to draft a 5attack/4hp for 4 mana creature, despite their model valuing 1 point of attack at .57 and 1 point of hp at .40.
For instance their Estimated cost for Light's Justice is 2.6 and for Fiery Waraxe 2.5. Except Light's Justice is godawful and Fiery Waraxe is one of the best cards in the game.
Why? Because Fiery Waraxe will kill almost any 1, 2, or 3 mana drop(most of those creatures have 2-3 hp). Light's Justice will tickle them and cause you to take massive amounts of damage.
It's also the reason Chillwind Yeti(4 attack/5 hp) is a 100% pick in Arena drafting(where you tend to build non-gimmicky general value decks). It very very often trades 2 for one and results in card advantage, without needing any combos. The increase from 4hp to 5hp is much more important than the increase from 3hp to 4hp.
Overall I really liked their experiment, despite disagreeing with their method/results :)