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Importing solar panels from China is not even remotely similar to importing oil from the Middle East. If we derived our energy primarily from solar power, we wo

by imgabe 17y ago

Importing solar panels from China is not even remotely similar to importing oil from the Middle East. If we derived our energy primarily from solar power, we wouldn't need a constant stream of solar panels to keep doing it, the way we need a constant stream of oil now. Also, since the company that makes the machines that makes solar panels, we could easily start producing them for ourselves if China suddenly decided to increase the price the way OPEC has the power to do with oil.

anigbrowl 17y ago
Quite true, buying solar panels is a capital spend rather than an operating cost. But if a trade war broke out, it would take a year or two to build the physical manufacturing facilities here, and we'd be at a competitive disadvanatage until that is done. If you think of trade economic warfare - and a great many people do, whether we agree or not - then physical goods are the ammunition. We do not fully understand a software-based economy yet, and for the foreseeable future software still has to run on a physical substrate, most of which takes place overseas. Suppose, just for example, we had a trade war with China and began levying punitive tariffs. China responds by, say, telling the companies that currently manufacture iPhone hardware to stop supplying Apple and start building a 4g version for the Chinese market. The government there has the economic and political heft to do that. It would not be a rational decision, but remember that rationality in war = predictability and thus defeatability. Surprise is a key strategic element. Well, where would Apple be if their suppliers suddenly cut them off? Sure, they could take their designs to manufacturers in other countries, even in the US. But it would probably take a year to ramp up production with sufficient quality control. What do you think would happen to their stock price?

by imgabe 17y ago

anigbrowl 17y ago

Quite true, buying solar panels is a capital spend rather than an operating cost. But if a trade war broke out, it would take a year or two to build the physical manufacturing facilities here, and we'd be at a competitive disadvanatage until that is done. If you think of trade economic warfare - and a great many people do, whether we agree or not - then physical goods are the ammunition. We do not fully understand a software-based economy yet, and for the foreseeable future software still has to run on a physical substrate, most of which takes place overseas. Suppose, just for example, we had a trade war with China and began levying punitive tariffs. China responds by, say, telling the companies that currently manufacture iPhone hardware to stop supplying Apple and start building a 4g version for the Chinese market. The government there has the economic and political heft to do that. It would not be a rational decision, but remember that rationality in war = predictability and thus defeatability. Surprise is a key strategic element. Well, where would Apple be if their suppliers suddenly cut them off? Sure, they could take their designs to manufacturers in other countries, even in the US. But it would probably take a year to ramp up production with sufficient quality control. What do you think would happen to their stock price?