Simple/refined carbs = sugar. Too much sugar in too short a time = insulin is generated to convert the sugar to fat. This time frame is about 30 min, so, unless

Simple/refined carbs = sugar. Too much sugar in too short a time = insulin is generated to convert the sugar to fat. This time frame is about 30 min, so, unless you are exercising while eating, almost all simple carbs and sugars will end up as fat. Perhaps then you can burn off the fact but that is not entirely dependent on exercise but about how your body will react to that exercise in the light of other issues (what else you're eating, if you're fasting, what your sleep levels are like, etc.).