So your take "Yes of course, value investor is a chance event". Alternative hypothesis does exist:-) They also have names like Berkshire, Soros, DE Shaw, Rena

So your take "Yes of course, value investor is a chance event". Alternative hypothesis does exist:-) They also have names like Berkshire, Soros, DE Shaw, Renaissance, Virtu, Tiger cubs, Ed Thorpe, Bridgewater, AQR, Tepper .. why do they exist?? markets are efficient. Are they not as "deep" thinkers as you are? Is that why they have wasted their 30-40yrs amassing wealth in the market? They must not be very smart wasting all that time thinking markets are inefficient. Indeed, very large hedge funds and super successful/secretive investors do exist (they are the same y/y after). The successful one get larger every year. If markets are efficient, why would hedge funds particularly the successful ones? Some of them aren't reported in the media as they are private family offices. So the alternative hypothesis Why would these guys be wasting their time? And more recently high frequency trading hedgefunds show Sharpe Ratios of more than 7, outperforming the market by more than 15x. The reason why they can't become large as the market is because they can't get enough leverage and/or find large enough balance sheet. But you can bet, they are actively seeking more money to expand. Case in point, Bridgewater, which exploits really a longshot bias, via their risk-parity fund is now a $160bn fund (grew from less than $1mn in 1970s). This is in practice, you just can't get the world's balance sheet as Capital is tied up in other economic processes. Also large swings in the stock market also indicate that the markets are not efficient. What justifies 50% drop in S&P in less than a year, if everything was fairly priced. In my opinion, super successful investors also reach their utility function for capital. Case in point is guys like Ed Thorpe, who ran successful hedgefunds for 20yrs with same 20% return every year. There's a finite capital utility for every man. I agree that someone who is not skilled in the market day to day, should just invest in S&P.