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Whatever happens, it's very likely that only one of them will go public. And given how indistinguishable both have become and how non-sticky their service is,

Whatever happens, it's very likely that only one of them will go public. And given how indistinguishable both have become and how non-sticky their service is, it wouldn't surprise me if the very existence of two competitors that are so similar makes it impossible for either one of them to reach the kind of profitability that's a requirement for IPO's. Kudos for disrupting the taxi industry, which was in dire need of a kick in the butt, but I think both companies are about to discover that profitability is a lot harder to achieve when you have competitors who can run a business that's 100% a clone of yours. The simple fact that most drivers are working for both Uber and Lyft should be a red flag for any savvy investor.

encoderer 12y ago
> Whatever happens, it's very likely that only one of them will go public. Your analysis of the IPO situation could use another look. I personally think it's very likely both companies will go public -- or Uber will snap up Lyft before it has the chance. While it's pretty reasonable to think there would be a "profitability requirement", a look at tech IPOs dispells that myth. Look at the recent ones, the ones from a few years ago, the 20 year old ones from the 90s, doesn't matter which period you look, you'll find scores of unprofitable companies. Recently Go Pro and Twitter went public. Neither, I don't think, are profitable. Of the 4 companies I mentioned in my comment, I don't think any are profitable consistently though perhaps Zillow has been recently. Amazon went public 20 years ago and is still not profitable. Neither of these companies need to turn a consistent profit in order to IPO. I imagine they both already have sales high enough to pass the chickenshit threshold. That's all that counts.
- zak_mc_kracken 12y ago
  Fair points, we'll see how things unfold. I still stand by my claim that at most one of them will go public. After that, either that one will buy the other one or one of them will fade (probably the one that didn't go public).

encoderer 12y ago

> Whatever happens, it's very likely that only one of them will go public. Your analysis of the IPO situation could use another look. I personally think it's very likely both companies will go public -- or Uber will snap up Lyft before it has the chance. While it's pretty reasonable to think there would be a "profitability requirement", a look at tech IPOs dispells that myth. Look at the recent ones, the ones from a few years ago, the 20 year old ones from the 90s, doesn't matter which period you look, you'll find scores of unprofitable companies. Recently Go Pro and Twitter went public. Neither, I don't think, are profitable. Of the 4 companies I mentioned in my comment, I don't think any are profitable consistently though perhaps Zillow has been recently. Amazon went public 20 years ago and is still not profitable. Neither of these companies need to turn a consistent profit in order to IPO. I imagine they both already have sales high enough to pass the chickenshit threshold. That's all that counts.

zak_mc_kracken 12y ago
Fair points, we'll see how things unfold. I still stand by my claim that at most one of them will go public. After that, either that one will buy the other one or one of them will fade (probably the one that didn't go public).