Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, by E.T. Jaynes, is a highly readable definitive reference that builds the theory from the ground up. The first three c

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, by E.T. Jaynes, is a highly readable definitive reference that builds the theory from the ground up. The first three chapters are all you need for your purposes and are available online for free (link below), but the entire book is wonderful and well worth reading if you are serious about the subject. http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf