4 ms·

Why Facebook will never be Twitter

10 points by jmonegro 17y ago

jonknee 17y ago
The bigger question is will either (or both!) become a lucrative business?
- maxwell 17y ago
  No. Like Flickr, Delicious, and YouTube, their brand will be the death of them. Flickr can't diversify (at scale) beyond a photo sharing site, so they'll be killed by a service with really great photo sharing as one feature among many. Same with the Delicious = bookmarks mapping, and YouTube = videos. They'll all just be forgotten fads from the twenty-oughts. Unless they let themselves get acquired, Posterous will beat every other sharing service. The brand will probably fade into the background though, and we'll all just have a "page." They seem close to the platonic form of electronic posts already. They're not there yet, but they're at least moving in the right direction, toward something like this Model M I'm typing on, or humanoids or sharks or Lisp. Edit: Rescinded dumb comparison to telegraph, changed 'niche to 'brand, and a few slight rewordings. Posterous won't "wipe out" anyone; in fact, that's exactly why they can win.
  - callmeed 17y ago
    But Facebook has all of those other "niche" services you mention. Doesn't that make it not a niche?
    - maxwell 17y ago
      You're right. I only meant niche in the case of Flickr, Delicious, and YouTube; Twitter and Facebook are specifically the brand. I edited my comment accordingly.
  - unalone 17y ago
    Jesus, you think Facebook will be forgotten for fucking Posterous? I think the Posterous team is terrific. They add shitloads of features, work hard, and Garry gave me a ton of useful advice when I applied to YC. But you're comparing a fairly amateur service with possibly the best-designed web site of all time. Posterous still hasn't beat Tumblr, which is rapidly becoming the most popular blogging service. For all its features, it looks like shit and doesn't have a rich user experience whatsoever. Facebook, on the other hand, has struck with the force of a goddamn atomic bomb. I must think that the people who criticize Facebook either have small friend circles or have extremely peculiar friend circles, but I've got a diverse bunch of contacts and the one unifying factor is that they use Facebook. Some people use it to hook up, some people use it for class information, some people debate politics on it, some people write long confessionals, some people waste class time, but they all use it and they use it obsessively. Facebook has become a medium unto itself. As in, my mother will write friends on Facebook instead of calling them. My grandfather will comment on photos. I will create an Event on Facebook rather than calling or emailing people. I will collaborate using a Facebook message. Facebook's not Twitter because Twitter's designed for minimal communication. Facebook's goal was to create private social worlds; Twitter's goal became a public massing of information. But users on Twitter (not Twitter itself) developed terrific methods of communication, and Facebook's adding them to its arsenal of features. Guess who is killing Flickr? Facebook. Guess what currently has the best chance of killing part of Youtube's clientele. Facebook (though I wish here I could say Vimeo). My friends send video messages to one another constantly, or record video when nothing's going on. All of my public photos are stored on Facebook, and once it offers public video that's where my videos are going. Facebook offers one service, and that service is intimacy. It's talking to friends and only friends. If I had to bet on one service surviving every other one online, it would be Facebook. It's the only service I've seen where I can't imagine it being dropped for something else. I thought that within a week when I joined it in 2005, and since then I've seen nothing to convince me otherwise. It is leagues beyond anything.
    - dasil003 17y ago
      This is why I find comparisons between Twitter and Facebook ridiculous. Facebook is sticky, and they are delivering tons of value to all kinds of people. Twitter on the meantime hasn't left fad territory and its growth since the Oprah spike is significantly comprised of spam. Plus, whatever Twitter does to monetize is likely to kill the golden goose.
- bdr 17y ago
  Yes, Facebook is going to be worth billions. Since you can't short the stock yet, we have to make a bet on the side, but I'd be happy to.
  - jonknee 17y ago
    It's already "worth" billions. My question is will it ever make billions in profit?
    - callmeed 17y ago
      Google only makes roughly 1-2B in profit per quarter. FB might get there in revenue, but profit ... not sure
    - bdr 17y ago
      Let's go with hundreds of millions within a few years. I'd bet on that.
zaidf 17y ago
Totally disagree. I really hope Facebook will add a "Public" tab under my profile. More and more I find myself posting status messages that I would LIKE to make public. Personally I was very pessimistic about FB when they made status messages the focus. Months later, I have to applaud them. My engagement on FB has increased many folds since.
- ujjwalg 17y ago
  I think I agree with you on this one. I used to tweet a lot but for the last two weeks, somehow facebook is back in business. I have been updating my status with links more than I tweet.
- unalone 17y ago
  I'm sure they'll work on a solution. Knowing Facebook, they'll have two solutions that utterly bomb and then one will catch on and look ugly, before they fix it up.

10 points by jmonegro 17y ago

jonknee 17y ago

The bigger question is will either (or both!) become a lucrative business?

maxwell 17y ago
No. Like Flickr, Delicious, and YouTube, their brand will be the death of them. Flickr can't diversify (at scale) beyond a photo sharing site, so they'll be killed by a service with really great photo sharing as one feature among many. Same with the Delicious = bookmarks mapping, and YouTube = videos. They'll all just be forgotten fads from the twenty-oughts. Unless they let themselves get acquired, Posterous will beat every other sharing service. The brand will probably fade into the background though, and we'll all just have a "page." They seem close to the platonic form of electronic posts already. They're not there yet, but they're at least moving in the right direction, toward something like this Model M I'm typing on, or humanoids or sharks or Lisp. Edit: Rescinded dumb comparison to telegraph, changed 'niche to 'brand, and a few slight rewordings. Posterous won't "wipe out" anyone; in fact, that's exactly why they can win.
- callmeed 17y ago
  But Facebook has all of those other "niche" services you mention. Doesn't that make it not a niche?
  - maxwell 17y ago
    You're right. I only meant niche in the case of Flickr, Delicious, and YouTube; Twitter and Facebook are specifically the brand. I edited my comment accordingly.
- unalone 17y ago
  Jesus, you think Facebook will be forgotten for fucking Posterous? I think the Posterous team is terrific. They add shitloads of features, work hard, and Garry gave me a ton of useful advice when I applied to YC. But you're comparing a fairly amateur service with possibly the best-designed web site of all time. Posterous still hasn't beat Tumblr, which is rapidly becoming the most popular blogging service. For all its features, it looks like shit and doesn't have a rich user experience whatsoever. Facebook, on the other hand, has struck with the force of a goddamn atomic bomb. I must think that the people who criticize Facebook either have small friend circles or have extremely peculiar friend circles, but I've got a diverse bunch of contacts and the one unifying factor is that they use Facebook. Some people use it to hook up, some people use it for class information, some people debate politics on it, some people write long confessionals, some people waste class time, but they all use it and they use it obsessively. Facebook has become a medium unto itself. As in, my mother will write friends on Facebook instead of calling them. My grandfather will comment on photos. I will create an Event on Facebook rather than calling or emailing people. I will collaborate using a Facebook message. Facebook's not Twitter because Twitter's designed for minimal communication. Facebook's goal was to create private social worlds; Twitter's goal became a public massing of information. But users on Twitter (not Twitter itself) developed terrific methods of communication, and Facebook's adding them to its arsenal of features. Guess who is killing Flickr? Facebook. Guess what currently has the best chance of killing part of Youtube's clientele. Facebook (though I wish here I could say Vimeo). My friends send video messages to one another constantly, or record video when nothing's going on. All of my public photos are stored on Facebook, and once it offers public video that's where my videos are going. Facebook offers one service, and that service is intimacy. It's talking to friends and only friends. If I had to bet on one service surviving every other one online, it would be Facebook. It's the only service I've seen where I can't imagine it being dropped for something else. I thought that within a week when I joined it in 2005, and since then I've seen nothing to convince me otherwise. It is leagues beyond anything.
  - dasil003 17y ago
    This is why I find comparisons between Twitter and Facebook ridiculous. Facebook is sticky, and they are delivering tons of value to all kinds of people. Twitter on the meantime hasn't left fad territory and its growth since the Oprah spike is significantly comprised of spam. Plus, whatever Twitter does to monetize is likely to kill the golden goose.
bdr 17y ago
Yes, Facebook is going to be worth billions. Since you can't short the stock yet, we have to make a bet on the side, but I'd be happy to.
- jonknee 17y ago
  It's already "worth" billions. My question is will it ever make billions in profit?
  - callmeed 17y ago
    Google only makes roughly 1-2B in profit per quarter. FB might get there in revenue, but profit ... not sure
  - bdr 17y ago
    Let's go with hundreds of millions within a few years. I'd bet on that.

zaidf 17y ago

Totally disagree. I really hope Facebook will add a "Public" tab under my profile. More and more I find myself posting status messages that I would LIKE to make public. Personally I was very pessimistic about FB when they made status messages the focus. Months later, I have to applaud them. My engagement on FB has increased many folds since.

ujjwalg 17y ago
I think I agree with you on this one. I used to tweet a lot but for the last two weeks, somehow facebook is back in business. I have been updating my status with links more than I tweet.
unalone 17y ago
I'm sure they'll work on a solution. Knowing Facebook, they'll have two solutions that utterly bomb and then one will catch on and look ugly, before they fix it up.