4 ms·

This is a cashout. They implemented their "new" features and can see that no revenue/profit is going to be made from their platform. There's an impending cliff

This is a cashout. They implemented their "new" features and can see that no revenue/profit is going to be made from their platform. There's an impending cliff they're about to drop off, shareholders are getting paid and jumping out before it buckles under it's own pressure. Anyone want to make a bet? I say within 6 months they'll be agreed to be acquired for cash/stocks. The only other option is to start acquiring other companies, but that's too risky long-term for investors.

harryh 12y ago
Sure. I'll bet you $1,000 that they are still independent on February 26, 2015.
- danielpal 12y ago
  Add me to that bet (I am betting that Snapchat stay's independent), so another $1,000. @Mandatum whats your email, let's put the money into a Bitcoin escrow, I'll set everything up, to be payed on February 27, 2015.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]
  - harryh 12y ago
    If @Mandatum won't go 2k deep I'll split however far he's willing to go 50/50 with you. :)
    - sachinag 12y ago
      Betting is a tax on bullshit. Good on you, 'arry.
- rdl 12y ago
  Yeah, this is a dumb bet. "Snapchat has peaked" or "snapchat is doomed" are each consistent with independence in a lot of cases. "Snapchat can IPO" as well as "undefined" are also. The only case I can see for "Snapchat in a quick sale" is if there were a strong #2 from FB, Twitter, Google, Microsoft and another of them bought Snapchat as the competitor. As it is, I don't think it's a direct competitor to Twitter/FB core business, so they're not forced to buy it right now.
- lazyant 12y ago
  silly question, is there a (known) web site for making (small) bets among individuals, keeping escrow, doing odds etc? I thought about this as a 'startup' idea but I'm scared of the laws, esp. US law
  - harryh 12y ago
    Not to my knowledge but I really wish there was! I would surely be a customer. I agree that US law could be an impediment to building such a thing.
jasonlbaptiste 12y ago
No, if they wanted to cash out, they could sell more. Go search home screen on Twitter, you'll see it's installed by as many young kids as Facebook (in some cases more). Monetization isn't easy here, but it is totally feasible with an audience like this.
- jonknee 12y ago
  Facebook doesn't make its money off the tweens though, they don't spend money online.
  - jasonlbaptiste 12y ago
    Snapchat will be a brand advertising play. Go ask any large brand advertiser whether teens are an important market.
    - jonknee 12y ago
      Might also want to ask if they want their ads on top of nude teenagers...
- devindotcom 12y ago
  Tweens are also extremely nomadic when it comes to apps. They'll drop snapchat like a bad habit over the next couple years as the new thing comes along.
  - jasonlbaptiste 12y ago
    Facebook and Instagram usage would say otherwise - they're still there. Yes, apps can get dropped, but how ingrained it is in their life is not to be understated.
prawn 12y ago
Surely investors are privy to information about their future that the general public is not?
justinzollars 12y ago
I'll also bet they are independent. But my typical bet size is $100. Interviews with Evan Spiegel imply he believes he has the opportunity to build the next great thing. And I believe him. Snapchat is a fantastic product and idea. I would invest at this "overvalued" level.
- nooron 12y ago
  I don't perceive Snapchat as the next great thing but I'd love to hear why you do. Really and truly -- I thought they were bonkers for not taking FB's offer, but I'm open to hearing why they aren't. Would you do me the favor of explicating? How can I make your explaining this to me worth your while?

harryh 12y ago

Sure. I'll bet you $1,000 that they are still independent on February 26, 2015.

danielpal 12y ago
Add me to that bet (I am betting that Snapchat stay's independent), so another $1,000. @Mandatum whats your email, let's put the money into a Bitcoin escrow, I'll set everything up, to be payed on February 27, 2015.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- harryh 12y ago
  If @Mandatum won't go 2k deep I'll split however far he's willing to go 50/50 with you. :)
  - sachinag 12y ago
    Betting is a tax on bullshit. Good on you, 'arry.
rdl 12y ago
Yeah, this is a dumb bet. "Snapchat has peaked" or "snapchat is doomed" are each consistent with independence in a lot of cases. "Snapchat can IPO" as well as "undefined" are also. The only case I can see for "Snapchat in a quick sale" is if there were a strong #2 from FB, Twitter, Google, Microsoft and another of them bought Snapchat as the competitor. As it is, I don't think it's a direct competitor to Twitter/FB core business, so they're not forced to buy it right now.
lazyant 12y ago
silly question, is there a (known) web site for making (small) bets among individuals, keeping escrow, doing odds etc? I thought about this as a 'startup' idea but I'm scared of the laws, esp. US law
- harryh 12y ago
  Not to my knowledge but I really wish there was! I would surely be a customer. I agree that US law could be an impediment to building such a thing.

jasonlbaptiste 12y ago

No, if they wanted to cash out, they could sell more. Go search home screen on Twitter, you'll see it's installed by as many young kids as Facebook (in some cases more). Monetization isn't easy here, but it is totally feasible with an audience like this.

jonknee 12y ago
Facebook doesn't make its money off the tweens though, they don't spend money online.
- jasonlbaptiste 12y ago
  Snapchat will be a brand advertising play. Go ask any large brand advertiser whether teens are an important market.
  - jonknee 12y ago
    Might also want to ask if they want their ads on top of nude teenagers...
devindotcom 12y ago
Tweens are also extremely nomadic when it comes to apps. They'll drop snapchat like a bad habit over the next couple years as the new thing comes along.
- jasonlbaptiste 12y ago
  Facebook and Instagram usage would say otherwise - they're still there. Yes, apps can get dropped, but how ingrained it is in their life is not to be understated.

prawn 12y ago

Surely investors are privy to information about their future that the general public is not?

justinzollars 12y ago

I'll also bet they are independent. But my typical bet size is $100. Interviews with Evan Spiegel imply he believes he has the opportunity to build the next great thing. And I believe him. Snapchat is a fantastic product and idea. I would invest at this "overvalued" level.

nooron 12y ago
I don't perceive Snapchat as the next great thing but I'd love to hear why you do. Really and truly -- I thought they were bonkers for not taking FB's offer, but I'm open to hearing why they aren't. Would you do me the favor of explicating? How can I make your explaining this to me worth your while?