That's a good point and the author kind of anticipates this with an umbrella "this isn't legit" clause at the end. Though I must say just as a demonstration of

That's a good point and the author kind of anticipates this with an umbrella "this isn't legit" clause at the end. Though I must say just as a demonstration of (albeit simple) predictive disease modeling in Mathematica, this article still stands on its own. It would be interesting to see how organizations like the CDC characterize and formalize all the variables that this article is forced to ignore for simplicity's sake. Are there maps of health care quality in use? Are there other important factors related to transmission other than infectiousness and population density of a given area? etc