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Econometricians, Financial Markets and Uncertainty: An Anthropological View

21 points by abledon 12y ago

mcguire 12y ago
Whenever I see arguments like, "It is clear that Zaka the Malagasy thinks David the American’s questions to be absolutely bizarre. It simply does not make any sense to him. Despite being educated he does not even think to ascribe to chance a numerical estimate." I start getting the suspicion that I'm being played. Do Malagasies not gamble? He goes on with, "But when Graeber asks what the chance of the bus turning up is or whether the cops will notice that he is parked illegally, these estimates are not objective. They are entirely mystical." Those estimates are not mystical. They're not backed up by good data and they're not really objective, but "mystical" is absolutely the wrong word. The probability of a bus arriving in the next five minutes can certainly be quantified, as a single number. On the other hand, it is also true that much of "econometrics", economics based on numbers rather than the even-worse grand theories of the universe, are not backed by the solid grounding that bus arrivals are. Things like GDP (or GNP; I can't remember the current term) or Black–Scholes do not have any real evidence of existence and are certainly "mystical". I see imagine the "performativity" aspect is going to be a hoot, too.
- gwern 12y ago
  > I start getting the suspicion that I'm being played. Do Malagasies not gamble? They may gamble, but who says they do so well? How well do Westerners indulging in gambler's fallacy or gambler's ruin understand it? And remember Blaise Pascal's invention of probability is ascribed to a dispute between experienced gamblers (Chevalier de Méré).
sinwave 12y ago
The anthropology of economics and the economics of anthropology are equally hilarious.
- calibraxis 12y ago
  Yes, it was amusing to read in Graeber's _Debt: The First 5000 Years_ about economics' founding myth of barter. And "the fact that many of Adam Smith’s most famous arguments appear to have been cribbed from the works of free-market theorists from medieval Persia (a story which, incidentally, has interesting implications for understanding the current appeal of political Islam)." Econ is indeed the dismal pseudoscience...
MaysonL 12y ago
Somehow, David Graeber on anything economic, is likely worth about as much as his description of Apple's founding. http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-street/archives/2011/11/david_graebers_odd_history_of_silicon_valley.html http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-street/archi...

21 points by abledon 12y ago

Whenever I see arguments like, "It is clear that Zaka the Malagasy thinks David the American’s questions to be absolutely bizarre. It simply does not make any sense to him. Despite being educated he does not even think to ascribe to chance a numerical estimate." I start getting the suspicion that I'm being played. Do Malagasies not gamble? He goes on with, "But when Graeber asks what the chance of the bus turning up is or whether the cops will notice that he is parked illegally, these estimates are not objective. They are entirely mystical." Those estimates are not mystical. They're not backed up by good data and they're not really objective, but "mystical" is absolutely the wrong word. The probability of a bus arriving in the next five minutes can certainly be quantified, as a single number. On the other hand, it is also true that much of "econometrics", economics based on numbers rather than the even-worse grand theories of the universe, are not backed by the solid grounding that bus arrivals are. Things like GDP (or GNP; I can't remember the current term) or Black–Scholes do not have any real evidence of existence and are certainly "mystical". I see imagine the "performativity" aspect is going to be a hoot, too.

gwern 12y ago
> I start getting the suspicion that I'm being played. Do Malagasies not gamble? They may gamble, but who says they do so well? How well do Westerners indulging in gambler's fallacy or gambler's ruin understand it? And remember Blaise Pascal's invention of probability is ascribed to a dispute between experienced gamblers (Chevalier de Méré).

sinwave 12y ago

The anthropology of economics and the economics of anthropology are equally hilarious.

calibraxis 12y ago
Yes, it was amusing to read in Graeber's _Debt: The First 5000 Years_ about economics' founding myth of barter. And "the fact that many of Adam Smith’s most famous arguments appear to have been cribbed from the works of free-market theorists from medieval Persia (a story which, incidentally, has interesting implications for understanding the current appeal of political Islam)." Econ is indeed the dismal pseudoscience...

MaysonL 12y ago

Somehow, David Graeber on anything economic, is likely worth about as much as his description of Apple's founding. http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-street/archives/2011/11/david_graebers_odd_history_of_silicon_valley.html http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-street/archi...