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So, we're all supposed to be all concerned about CFCs and ozone, again. Hmm .... Sorry, guys. Net, I just can't accept the null hypothesis and have to reject

by graycat 12y ago

So, we're all supposed to be all concerned about CFCs and ozone, again. Hmm .... Sorry, guys. Net, I just can't accept the null hypothesis and have to reject it. I know; I know; a guy got the Nobel prize in chemistry for his work on CFCs and ozone. Nice. Sounds like really good work in chemistry. So, the null hypothesis is that we must restrict CFCs or we will be destroying the planet, the sky will fall, we will all get skin cancer, in the tropics all life will be destroyed, the ozone layer is the blanket protecting life on our Mother Earth, and we will be destroying it! Evil humans! Evil CFCs! Precious life giving ozone! So go the cries. Sorry, guys, I have to reject that null hypothesis. Why reject? It smells like week old dead fish, that's why. Or, it's the old trilogy: Transgression by sinful, evil humans (using CFCs). Retribution from an angry god (skin cancer). Redemption via sacrifice (destroy old A/C equipment). Old? Sure, back to the old English morality plays. In various versions, for centuries in Europe it had the Roman Catholic church filthy rich. How rich? Look up the Bishop's Residenz in Würzburg (1751-53). To heck with some dirt cheap, $100 million Manhattan apartment; for some real luxury, tough to beat the Bishop's Residenz! Or, at one time, the Roman Catholic church owned a major fraction of all the farm land in France which happens to have a major fraction of all the good farm land in Europe. Did I mention rich? Such a good wheel had to be reinvented: Okay, the Mayan charlatans claimed that they had to kill people (sacrifice) to pour their blood on a rock to keep the sun moving across the sky (redemption). Ah, right, the trilogy from Europe was more sophisticated! Okay, guys: It's a scam. Old England figured it out with the morality plays. The Europeans figured it out with the Roman Catholic church. The Mayans figured it out with pouring blood on a rock. It's a popular scam, reinvented more than once. Don't believe it's not a scam. Instead, as usual, there's a hidden agenda. Or, wise advice, "Always look for the hidden agenda.". Yup, good advice. Here for CFCs, what is the hidden agenda? Sure: Outlaw old Freon, which was getting to be a cheap commodity; sell new refrigeration working fluids at much higher prices; and destroy all existing auto A/C and more refrigeration equipment. Yup, I've got two cars with A/C that doesn't work due to lack of Freon. So, net, what is the really believable real reason for the laws against CFCs? Sure: Sell more working fluid and equipment for refrigeration, especially auto A/C. That the real reason is protecting the ozone layer? Smells like week old dead fish to me. Selling more A/C sounds much more believable. Or, take the other wise advice, "Follow the money.". Still, I'm sure it was some really nice chemistry. For NASA talking about this now? Hmm .... The White House likes to have the Administration talking about green things. Doing things? Not so much. Talking? Yup, lots of it. Why? Get political support from the greenies. Easy political support -- just have, say, NASA issue some press releases and get some support. Nothing real, just some simple politics. Do I believe that the NASA statement is really about the ozone or about White House politics? I come down on the side of White House politics; I'm sure that the White House cares much more about politics than ozone. Sorry 'bout that, but as a citizen I have to form opinions, and eventually I can smell week old dead fish and do believe in the importance of hidden agendas, following the money, and watching out for politics, all much more than ozone. Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me. I've been fooled more than once already and don't want to be fooled again. By now I don't believe it's really about the ozone; not a chance. If NASA and the White House have some really good evidence, then they can trot it out. Else I will just move on. Now, has rational, engineering, scientific, skeptical Hacker News been converted into naive, sucker, gullible, politically correct,, brain-dead, anxiety-ridden. manipulated greenie news and propaganda? Are are some people getting paid for such propaganda?

maerF0x0 12y ago
Just because we dont know ~why~ the ozone is depleting, doesnt mean we dont know the effects of ozone depletion. Maybe we've tried a half dozen things that havent worked. We probably want to keep trying due to the consequences of ozone loss.
- graycat 12y ago
  Yes, likely we know what the effects of ozone depletion would be if we in fact had some significant ozone depletion. I've never seen any meaningful evidence of ozone loss. Yes, yes, yes, I know, there was publicity and/or propaganda of a big ozone hole over the Antarctic, right, in the winter in the Antarctic when there was no sunlight at all. Semi-, pseudo-, quasi-amazing. It was presented just as propaganda, not as solid evidence with who measured it, how, when, where, etc. with comparisons with elsewhere, with the Antarctic at other times of the year and in other years, the Arctic, etc. It was just propaganda. It wasn't much better than the Mayan charlatans claiming that without pouring blood on a rock the sun would stop moving across the sky. "Keep trying"? Sounds like medicine 500 years ago -- let's try some of this sulfur, now some of this broth of boiled rat tails, now some of these leaches. We've had hundreds of years to know that such mindless, irrational throwing trash against the wall to see what sticks is just wasteful or dangerous and we shouldn't do it. Or, if it ain't broke, then don't fix it, and so far there is no good evidence that anything is broken. Moreover, even if there is a problem, there's still less evidence that humans are the cause. Much stronger evidence is that some manipulators and propagandists can make people feel guilty for no good reason. It's social and psychological, not physical or scientific. Some good technical people can be a bit eager to believe that there is a genuine problem and a bit slow to see just simple, silly, psychological manipulation. "Consequences of ozone loss"? Yes, the "consequences" would be bad, but we shouldn't worry about such consequences until we have some solid evidence of significant "ozone loss" due to human activity, and so far we don't. There would also be terrible "consequences" if the sun quit shining, but we don't try to DO something about that yet. You are acting like someone convinced you that you are a terrible sinner, that you are doing something very wrong, and that you need to sacrifice this and that, whatever, until you are no longer doing something wrong, etc. As I outlined, that's a very old, dirty, destructive, manipulative mind trick. You've been totally taken in. Instead, it's much more likely that you should be concerned about being manipulated by a hidden agenda, that you should follow the money, that you should know that politics is more important than ozone. It's just not about ozone. Warm, sincere advice: Just gotta be really gullible to believe that this is actually about ozone. Or, some people want to be on your back and into your pocket. Not nearly a new story, but one, a scam, that has worked for 1000+ years. Why? Because people tend to be afraid. And, when in doubt, still be afraid. Be afraid of anything that goes "bunp" in the night. Be afraid of what's under the bed. Be afraid of anything new. Be afraid that are doing something wrong. Be afraid when authority figures talk about the sky is falling. Then, afraid, believe that need to do something, certainly not just do nothing. So, something, say, what some manipulative propagandist authority figure is saying to do. Let them be on your back and pick your pocket. Let them ruin your A/C and, then, sell you new A/C at much higher prices, all for no good reason of science or engineering. It's a scam. It's time to call it a scam.

by graycat 12y ago

maerF0x0 12y ago

Just because we dont know ~why~ the ozone is depleting, doesnt mean we dont know the effects of ozone depletion. Maybe we've tried a half dozen things that havent worked. We probably want to keep trying due to the consequences of ozone loss.

graycat 12y ago
Yes, likely we know what the effects of ozone depletion would be if we in fact had some significant ozone depletion. I've never seen any meaningful evidence of ozone loss. Yes, yes, yes, I know, there was publicity and/or propaganda of a big ozone hole over the Antarctic, right, in the winter in the Antarctic when there was no sunlight at all. Semi-, pseudo-, quasi-amazing. It was presented just as propaganda, not as solid evidence with who measured it, how, when, where, etc. with comparisons with elsewhere, with the Antarctic at other times of the year and in other years, the Arctic, etc. It was just propaganda. It wasn't much better than the Mayan charlatans claiming that without pouring blood on a rock the sun would stop moving across the sky. "Keep trying"? Sounds like medicine 500 years ago -- let's try some of this sulfur, now some of this broth of boiled rat tails, now some of these leaches. We've had hundreds of years to know that such mindless, irrational throwing trash against the wall to see what sticks is just wasteful or dangerous and we shouldn't do it. Or, if it ain't broke, then don't fix it, and so far there is no good evidence that anything is broken. Moreover, even if there is a problem, there's still less evidence that humans are the cause. Much stronger evidence is that some manipulators and propagandists can make people feel guilty for no good reason. It's social and psychological, not physical or scientific. Some good technical people can be a bit eager to believe that there is a genuine problem and a bit slow to see just simple, silly, psychological manipulation. "Consequences of ozone loss"? Yes, the "consequences" would be bad, but we shouldn't worry about such consequences until we have some solid evidence of significant "ozone loss" due to human activity, and so far we don't. There would also be terrible "consequences" if the sun quit shining, but we don't try to DO something about that yet. You are acting like someone convinced you that you are a terrible sinner, that you are doing something very wrong, and that you need to sacrifice this and that, whatever, until you are no longer doing something wrong, etc. As I outlined, that's a very old, dirty, destructive, manipulative mind trick. You've been totally taken in. Instead, it's much more likely that you should be concerned about being manipulated by a hidden agenda, that you should follow the money, that you should know that politics is more important than ozone. It's just not about ozone. Warm, sincere advice: Just gotta be really gullible to believe that this is actually about ozone. Or, some people want to be on your back and into your pocket. Not nearly a new story, but one, a scam, that has worked for 1000+ years. Why? Because people tend to be afraid. And, when in doubt, still be afraid. Be afraid of anything that goes "bunp" in the night. Be afraid of what's under the bed. Be afraid of anything new. Be afraid that are doing something wrong. Be afraid when authority figures talk about the sky is falling. Then, afraid, believe that need to do something, certainly not just do nothing. So, something, say, what some manipulative propagandist authority figure is saying to do. Let them be on your back and pick your pocket. Let them ruin your A/C and, then, sell you new A/C at much higher prices, all for no good reason of science or engineering. It's a scam. It's time to call it a scam.