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This isn't the end of it either. In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice.
by beedogs 12y ago
This isn't the end of it either. In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice.
- chollida1 12y ago> In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice. Based on what? Serious question. When people say this about stocks they are either: 1) pulling it out of their ass.. 2) They have done some quantitative analysis, based on some sort of CFA teachings. I'm assuming you are in camp 1 here. Not that there is anything wrong with a "gut feeling", I"m just not going to invest based on it:) As a question to anyone, what sort of analysis can one do on bitcoin to derive a proper price for it? I'd be open to any quantitative analysis techniques here! My wheel house is market microstructure, but I'd love to work on a model to value bitcoin with someone if they had any ideas.
- ThomPete 12y agoBased on the same principles that lead us to think it's ok to pay 2000 for rent when it used to be 200. There is always a new normal. Edit: Why the downvote?
- jlillyreed 12y agoSo.. going with camp 1 then, eh?
- ThomPete 12y agoIs there any other camp? And does it matter? The question asked was to this "In a month or two, 475 dollars will look nice."
- yebyen 12y agoWell, if you're willing to ignore the existing base of bitcoin already mined (and even in some cases the sunk cost of buying hardware that can be used to mine them) go ahead and do your calculation based solely on the price per unit energy as a starting point. If you use this calculator[1] you can see that if your 50GH/s array spends 300w which you had to pay for, you are burning about $0.48/day at the current price, assuming all of that from before. This is not top-of-the-line, but it is some relatively modern ASIC equipment from BFL. Previous generation miners, 5 and 10GH/s "Jalapenos" from the 65nm fab. They are supposedly rolling out 28nm "Monarch" now which are at least 10x as powerful and certainly more than just marginally better at power efficiency. If you look at this chart[2] you can see an estimate of the next difficulty and adjust your calculations for next week, it becomes pretty clear that more people are turning on their Gigahashes than turning them off, even if that was only marginally the case two weeks ago. You have to imagine those people are mostly those with newer equipment. I don't have a graph of price overlaid with difficulty, but it can't be too hard to find one. A few months ago it was possible to scale them and demonstrate a relatively good fit where price and difficulty were roughly correlated, but since difficulty shows no signs of falling yet, I suspect that fit is not so good anymore. [1]: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ [2]: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
- TheLoneWolfling 12y agoA better graph might be change in hashrate versus price.
- rplnt 12y agoIf you are so sure, make money of it. I'm sure there are people that believe otherwise.