3 ms·
Haha nice. Although, in this case we are looking ahead, basing our short-term survival on what a long-term survival would theoretically look like. So the more p
by titanomachy 12y ago
Haha nice. Although, in this case we are looking ahead, basing our short-term survival on what a long-term survival would theoretically look like. So the more people there are in the hypothetical Doom Late, the more likely Doom Soon becomes. The more I think about this the more absurd it seems.
- typomatic 12y agoYeah, all this analysis (both what we've done and in the original article) are facile--a proper Bayesian treatment would have continuous priors/posteriors that would be a little more informative than an either-or. The problem you're seeing here is that if you make your possibilities "Humans live forever (even past the heat death of the universe)" or "All humans die in the next 10 minutes", you'll find that the chance that humans die in the next 10 minutes is really absurdly high.