Ok, this may be mathematically naive, but... In the cubicle example discovering that you are in cube 1-10 makes the likelihood of the 1-10 scenario much more l

Ok, this may be mathematically naive, but... In the cubicle example discovering that you are in cube 1-10 makes the likelihood of the 1-10 scenario much more likely than it was before you discovered you were in one of the first 10 cubes using a simple application of Bayes theorem. With the 100 billion or 100 trillion people example, you are person 60 billion. Theoretically making 100 billion much more likely than if you didn't know where you fell. That probability approaches one if work off the assumption that doom(late) means hundreds of millennia of humans spreading across the galaxy at our current growth rate. the higher the Total possible humans in doom(late) the higher the probability that being in the first 100b indicated that there will only be 100b. (or similar numbers) One difference I see between the two scenarios is time. The 100 cubes are not filled in sequence. In the 100billion/100trillion example, every single person that ever lived is in the 100billion, until they're not, then everyone is not in the 100 billion. I don't know that it affects the math, but it affects my thinking about the problem.