The site says "The draw is weighted by payment amount". I'm assuming that's linear -- if I put in 1 stellar, and you put in 2, you're twice as likely to win tha

The site says "The draw is weighted by payment amount". I'm assuming that's linear -- if I put in 1 stellar, and you put in 2, you're twice as likely to win than you are. If the weighting is different (say, you're four times as likely to win), then that changes the math. Let's say that before you put anything in, the pot holds X stellar. You then put in Y stellar. So I'm assuming that you win with Y/(X+Y) probability. If you win, you win .98(X+Y). If you lose, you lose everything. So your expected value is the chance you win (Y/(X+Y)) times the return (.98(X+Y)). Y --- * .98 * (X+Y) X+Y The (X+Y) parts cancel, and you end up with .98Y, or less than what you put in. And since we didn't use the fact that Y>X, it's independent from the actual values of X and Y, so it holds no matter what they are^1. [1] Assuming they're positive, and X+Y is nonzero.