4 ms·

I thought this was a little weird: "melanoma diagnosis increased by 1.9 percent annually between 2000 and 2009." I would have thought that this would have went

by drpgq 12y ago

I thought this was a little weird: "melanoma diagnosis increased by 1.9 percent annually between 2000 and 2009." I would have thought that this would have went down through this period. I was born in 1973 and wore some sunscreen as a kid and I would assume the amount of sunscreen wearing has increased over time and sun exposure has decreased. Some time before that people were barely wearing sunscreen or limiting exposure so as they die out I would expect the melanoma rate to decrease. Of course there would be a lot of compounding factors, like longer lifespans, a higher percentage of Americans living in the South, etc. Just seems a little odd.

bcebulla 12y ago
The reason melanoma incidence is increasing is because of a "diagnostic drift," similar to what we see in the rise of psychological disorders: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19519827 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19519827 We are more routinely getting skin lesion check ups and dermatologists and oncologists are more and more cautious, leading to an ever-increasing incidence of stage I melanoma. However, we're not really seeing an increase in later stage melanoma, meaning that the "true" incidence of melanoma is not increasing. It's sort of a huge public health scam. The dermatologists are using this vanity metric of increased diagnoses as evidence that we're in the middle of a melanoma/skin-cancer epidemic, when it's simply not the case. Not that safe sun exposure practices shouldn't be promoted, but the motor behind these messages is a bit of a scam.
_archon_ 12y ago
Don't forget that we have baby boomers entering the middle/later stages of life, where we would expect such diagnoses to be made. I'd expect the death rate in the US to steadily increase with respect to population over the next couple decades, then gradually decline.

by drpgq 12y ago

bcebulla 12y ago

The reason melanoma incidence is increasing is because of a "diagnostic drift," similar to what we see in the rise of psychological disorders: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19519827 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19519827 We are more routinely getting skin lesion check ups and dermatologists and oncologists are more and more cautious, leading to an ever-increasing incidence of stage I melanoma. However, we're not really seeing an increase in later stage melanoma, meaning that the "true" incidence of melanoma is not increasing. It's sort of a huge public health scam. The dermatologists are using this vanity metric of increased diagnoses as evidence that we're in the middle of a melanoma/skin-cancer epidemic, when it's simply not the case. Not that safe sun exposure practices shouldn't be promoted, but the motor behind these messages is a bit of a scam.

_archon_ 12y ago

Don't forget that we have baby boomers entering the middle/later stages of life, where we would expect such diagnoses to be made. I'd expect the death rate in the US to steadily increase with respect to population over the next couple decades, then gradually decline.