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Show HN: Stellar Jackpot

56 points by thijser 12y ago

deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
floatrock 12y ago
Neat. You're trusting a website that doesn't list who runs it (whois says it's a guy named Mathijs Vogelzang out of Paris) or what their intentions are to provide a fair lottery to anonymous addresses. Given enough lotteries you could backtrace the results and make sure the distributions are probabilistically random, but what's stopping the owner from entering a sufficiently large pool and 'randomly' selecting an address he controls as the winner? Oh, and for providing this service you automatically lose 2% off the top. There are far better ways to waste your virtual disney dollars.
- knd775 12y ago
  I'm pretty sure the poster (thijser) is Mathijs Vogelzang based on his username. His HN profile is a few years old and he says where he works on his profile. I'm not saying whether people should trust this or not, but I think you may be being a bit unfair.
  - codingdave 12y ago
    I don't this he is being the slightest bit unfair. At least in the US, lotteries make a lot of money for the people running them, but that is normally shared with local communities or governments. If you participate in lotteries, you pretty much are guaranteed to be throwing your money away, but at least losing people do get some benefits from the system, as the proceeds get spent in their area. In this case, one guy just collects the money. No matter what his intentions or honesty, he collects. If people want to throw him their "cash", fine... but they should absolutely realize what they are doing.
    - deleted 12y ago
      [deleted]
jdietrich 12y ago
I take it you have a lottery license?
- davidjgraph 12y ago
  I take it he lives in a country where one is required?
  - Kiro 12y ago
    I don't know of any modern country where it's not required.
mful 12y ago
I can't decide if this is fun, but fiscally pointless, or kinda brilliant. It looks like a pretty simple app, which I doubt took too much time to put together, and is likely incredibly cheap to run. Assuming the most recent two hours are more representative of engagement than the previous two (not a given by any means, and no I haven't been tracking this before then), it looks like it's producing several hundred Stellars an hour minimum for the creators. Stellars aren't worth much right now, and may never be (I'll leave that sort of speculation to those with more knowledge of the subject), but this seems like a cheap and quick way to build a stockpile. Anyway, food for thought.
gojomo 12y ago
"…redistribution game…" – what a lovely euphemism! And finally, a website to directly address the problem that anonymous lottery operators have too little wealth, and credulous altcoin lottery players have too much.
knes 12y ago
Awesome idea., I just sent some Stellar to it.
hrjet 12y ago
Just for fun, what would be the optimal strategy to play this game? If you have x amount to spare, you could either put all x in one round, or spend x/N in N rounds. I guess, the probability of winning might be optimal for some N > 1, but I am not able to come up with a formula for it. Further optimisation of the N>1 strategy could be to stop entering into a round after winning and making a profit.
- fela 12y ago
  The expected amount is always 98% percent of what you put in, so the optimal strategy is to not play at all :) It depends what you are optimizing for. In most cases playing multiple times will make you win very slightly less in the median case, countered by the fact that you can win multiple jackpots (obviously not too likely an event) And stopping strategies usually mean having a big probability of winning little but have a small chance of losing a lot. Basically a reverse lottery, but you still lose on average.
Egidius 12y ago
Is there any way I can get str's by buying them somehow? It seems like I'm a bit too late with registrating my Stellar account
- gst 12y ago
  https://justcoin.com/ https://justcoin.com/ would be an option (appears to currently have the largest Stellar volume out of the few exchanges that trade it). Here are the current prices: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/ http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/
chrisfosterelli 12y ago
I wonder if you could game that jackpot. Statistically, with even-odd tickets the net value of the ticket is always less than the ticket cost -- meaning statistically you loose money (ex: a $2 ticket, on average, has a return of $1.50). If you could monitor the jackpot and, at the very last minute, more than double the current pot then you'd have over a 50% chance of winning. You'd win some and loose some, but statistically over time I think you'd end up positive. Any mathematicians want to chime in? EDIT: As fela, zck, and thedufer pointed out below, this would not work in fact. Thank you guys for the math lesson!
- thedufer 12y ago
  If you exactly double the pot right before a drawing, you'll have a 50% of losing 50% of the pot (what you put in) and a 50% chance of winning 48% of the pot, with an expected value of, you guessed it, losing 2% of your money each time. It's not a coincidence that this 2% is equal to the cut taken. That will always be your expected loss. Unless it does not behave as advertised, you can't game it.
  - chrisfosterelli 12y ago
    I said "more than double the pot". So your odds would be over 50%. And you win the entire pot if you win, unless I'm misunderstanding? You don't have a 50% chance of winning 48%, you have a >50% chance of winning 98%.
    - zck 12y ago
      The site says "The draw is weighted by payment amount". I'm assuming that's linear -- if I put in 1 stellar, and you put in 2, you're twice as likely to win than you are. If the weighting is different (say, you're four times as likely to win), then that changes the math. Let's say that before you put anything in, the pot holds X stellar. You then put in Y stellar. So I'm assuming that you win with Y/(X+Y) probability. If you win, you win .98(X+Y). If you lose, you lose everything. So your expected value is the chance you win (Y/(X+Y)) times the return (.98(X+Y)). Y --- * .98 * (X+Y) X+Y The (X+Y) parts cancel, and you end up with .98Y, or less than what you put in. And since we didn't use the fact that Y>X, it's independent from the actual values of X and Y, so it holds no matter what they are^1. [1] Assuming they're positive, and X+Y is nonzero.
knes 12y ago
I just won the last jackpot of 37682.96 stellar. Not sure what I can do with it hehe.
- fela 12y ago
  play again :P or give it to a charity, I think there are a few that have a stellar account, for example miri
thijser 12y ago
I'm the creator, thanks for the insights. This was really just a fun project to explore the Stellar API (which is really good, and I hope they will reach their goal and transform international payments). It seems the attention on hacker news drew quite some payments into the system, whereas I had thought that it would just stay in the play money range forever. The lottery aspect I hadn't thought about. I'm eager to transform the model to make it less lottery like as I certainly don't want to violate any laws, but am a bit unsure about exactly how. There could be a small chance that 100% of the money goes to a charity, or that there is somehow a matter of skill involved in the exact amount you send. (FYI, the only other piece of information that can be sent along with a Stellar payment is one 32-bit integer ID). Any suggestions are welcome.
- fela 12y ago
  I think giving the margin to a charity would be a great idea. I was thinking of implementing a stellar charity lottery, but you have been faster it seems :) As an added benefit people might be more likely to play if they know they are doing so for a good cause. Everybody wins! :) I think there are a few charities on stellar already
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
- dreamdu5t 12y ago
  Don't listen to people trying to pressure you on how you spend you money. People love to shame others. You made a lottery. Nobody has to play. Do whatever you want with the money. Don't give it to charity because someone else told you to.
  - noso 12y ago
    I agree with this post, you created it and people are using it so do what you want with it. It is a great idea, So well done!
desireco42 12y ago
Apparently I won. :) So I know it pays back.
joshdance 12y ago
Take 2%. That is almost a standard credit card fee. We are trying to get away from those level of fees with new types of currency.

56 points by thijser 12y ago

deleted 12y ago

[deleted]

Neat. You're trusting a website that doesn't list who runs it (whois says it's a guy named Mathijs Vogelzang out of Paris) or what their intentions are to provide a fair lottery to anonymous addresses. Given enough lotteries you could backtrace the results and make sure the distributions are probabilistically random, but what's stopping the owner from entering a sufficiently large pool and 'randomly' selecting an address he controls as the winner? Oh, and for providing this service you automatically lose 2% off the top. There are far better ways to waste your virtual disney dollars.

knd775 12y ago
I'm pretty sure the poster (thijser) is Mathijs Vogelzang based on his username. His HN profile is a few years old and he says where he works on his profile. I'm not saying whether people should trust this or not, but I think you may be being a bit unfair.
- codingdave 12y ago
  I don't this he is being the slightest bit unfair. At least in the US, lotteries make a lot of money for the people running them, but that is normally shared with local communities or governments. If you participate in lotteries, you pretty much are guaranteed to be throwing your money away, but at least losing people do get some benefits from the system, as the proceeds get spent in their area. In this case, one guy just collects the money. No matter what his intentions or honesty, he collects. If people want to throw him their "cash", fine... but they should absolutely realize what they are doing.
  - deleted 12y ago
    [deleted]

jdietrich 12y ago

I take it you have a lottery license?

davidjgraph 12y ago
I take it he lives in a country where one is required?
- Kiro 12y ago
  I don't know of any modern country where it's not required.

mful 12y ago

I can't decide if this is fun, but fiscally pointless, or kinda brilliant. It looks like a pretty simple app, which I doubt took too much time to put together, and is likely incredibly cheap to run. Assuming the most recent two hours are more representative of engagement than the previous two (not a given by any means, and no I haven't been tracking this before then), it looks like it's producing several hundred Stellars an hour minimum for the creators. Stellars aren't worth much right now, and may never be (I'll leave that sort of speculation to those with more knowledge of the subject), but this seems like a cheap and quick way to build a stockpile. Anyway, food for thought.

gojomo 12y ago

"…redistribution game…" – what a lovely euphemism! And finally, a website to directly address the problem that anonymous lottery operators have too little wealth, and credulous altcoin lottery players have too much.

knes 12y ago

Awesome idea., I just sent some Stellar to it.

hrjet 12y ago

Just for fun, what would be the optimal strategy to play this game? If you have x amount to spare, you could either put all x in one round, or spend x/N in N rounds. I guess, the probability of winning might be optimal for some N > 1, but I am not able to come up with a formula for it. Further optimisation of the N>1 strategy could be to stop entering into a round after winning and making a profit.

fela 12y ago
The expected amount is always 98% percent of what you put in, so the optimal strategy is to not play at all :) It depends what you are optimizing for. In most cases playing multiple times will make you win very slightly less in the median case, countered by the fact that you can win multiple jackpots (obviously not too likely an event) And stopping strategies usually mean having a big probability of winning little but have a small chance of losing a lot. Basically a reverse lottery, but you still lose on average.

Egidius 12y ago

Is there any way I can get str's by buying them somehow? It seems like I'm a bit too late with registrating my Stellar account

gst 12y ago
https://justcoin.com/ https://justcoin.com/ would be an option (appears to currently have the largest Stellar volume out of the few exchanges that trade it). Here are the current prices: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/ http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stellar/

chrisfosterelli 12y ago

I wonder if you could game that jackpot. Statistically, with even-odd tickets the net value of the ticket is always less than the ticket cost -- meaning statistically you loose money (ex: a $2 ticket, on average, has a return of $1.50). If you could monitor the jackpot and, at the very last minute, more than double the current pot then you'd have over a 50% chance of winning. You'd win some and loose some, but statistically over time I think you'd end up positive. Any mathematicians want to chime in? EDIT: As fela, zck, and thedufer pointed out below, this would not work in fact. Thank you guys for the math lesson!

thedufer 12y ago
If you exactly double the pot right before a drawing, you'll have a 50% of losing 50% of the pot (what you put in) and a 50% chance of winning 48% of the pot, with an expected value of, you guessed it, losing 2% of your money each time. It's not a coincidence that this 2% is equal to the cut taken. That will always be your expected loss. Unless it does not behave as advertised, you can't game it.
- chrisfosterelli 12y ago
  I said "more than double the pot". So your odds would be over 50%. And you win the entire pot if you win, unless I'm misunderstanding? You don't have a 50% chance of winning 48%, you have a >50% chance of winning 98%.
  - zck 12y ago
    The site says "The draw is weighted by payment amount". I'm assuming that's linear -- if I put in 1 stellar, and you put in 2, you're twice as likely to win than you are. If the weighting is different (say, you're four times as likely to win), then that changes the math. Let's say that before you put anything in, the pot holds X stellar. You then put in Y stellar. So I'm assuming that you win with Y/(X+Y) probability. If you win, you win .98(X+Y). If you lose, you lose everything. So your expected value is the chance you win (Y/(X+Y)) times the return (.98(X+Y)). Y --- * .98 * (X+Y) X+Y The (X+Y) parts cancel, and you end up with .98Y, or less than what you put in. And since we didn't use the fact that Y>X, it's independent from the actual values of X and Y, so it holds no matter what they are^1. [1] Assuming they're positive, and X+Y is nonzero.

knes 12y ago

I just won the last jackpot of 37682.96 stellar. Not sure what I can do with it hehe.

fela 12y ago
play again :P or give it to a charity, I think there are a few that have a stellar account, for example miri

thijser 12y ago

I'm the creator, thanks for the insights. This was really just a fun project to explore the Stellar API (which is really good, and I hope they will reach their goal and transform international payments). It seems the attention on hacker news drew quite some payments into the system, whereas I had thought that it would just stay in the play money range forever. The lottery aspect I hadn't thought about. I'm eager to transform the model to make it less lottery like as I certainly don't want to violate any laws, but am a bit unsure about exactly how. There could be a small chance that 100% of the money goes to a charity, or that there is somehow a matter of skill involved in the exact amount you send. (FYI, the only other piece of information that can be sent along with a Stellar payment is one 32-bit integer ID). Any suggestions are welcome.

fela 12y ago
I think giving the margin to a charity would be a great idea. I was thinking of implementing a stellar charity lottery, but you have been faster it seems :) As an added benefit people might be more likely to play if they know they are doing so for a good cause. Everybody wins! :) I think there are a few charities on stellar already
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]
dreamdu5t 12y ago
Don't listen to people trying to pressure you on how you spend you money. People love to shame others. You made a lottery. Nobody has to play. Do whatever you want with the money. Don't give it to charity because someone else told you to.
- noso 12y ago
  I agree with this post, you created it and people are using it so do what you want with it. It is a great idea, So well done!

desireco42 12y ago

Apparently I won. :) So I know it pays back.

joshdance 12y ago

Take 2%. That is almost a standard credit card fee. We are trying to get away from those level of fees with new types of currency.