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I doubt it. China may become more expensive in the same way Japan did, but there's always another source of low cost labor. Half the world is still poking the

by tsotha 12y ago

I doubt it. China may become more expensive in the same way Japan did, but there's always another source of low cost labor. Half the world is still poking the ground with sharp sticks. If it isn't China it'll be Vietnam, or Indonesia, or the Philippines, or Brazil. When those sources of cheap labor become too expensive we'll always have Africa. I can envision a time when higher transportation costs coupled with growth-induced global labor demand coupled with unacceptable infrastructure in the last pockets of grinding poverty make low-tech manufacturing attractive in the US, but I don't think any of us are going to live to see that time unless the US economy collapses as catastrophically as the Soviet economy collapsed.

xenadu02 12y ago
Assuming political stability in those countries. Assuming the global cost of shipping remains constant. Assuming China doesn't enact protectionist policies to placate internal tensions as they transition to a consumer economy. Assuming the adoption of just-in-time robotic manufacturing with 3D printing (and the extreme customization/personalization it allows) doesn't become "the price of entry" to certain markets.
sien 12y ago
Wages are far from the only cost in manufacturing. Indeed, they are becoming less important as automation comes in more and more. Infrastructure, in particular energy and transport are critical, as is secure legal rights and access to markets. Also you need a population that has decent high school level education. There really isn't another China. Nothing of the size and with the infrastructure is around. Costs have reached a point where the US is competitive again for things that 15 years ago would have been made in China. Here are some articles discussing it: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-25/china-vs-dot-the-u-dot-s-dot-its-just-as-cheap-to-make-goods-in-the-u-dot-s-dot-a http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-25/china-vs-dot... http://www.economist.com/node/21549956 http://www.economist.com/node/21549956 This is really a great thing for the world. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people are now much wealthier than they were 20 years ago.

by tsotha 12y ago

xenadu02 12y ago

Assuming political stability in those countries. Assuming the global cost of shipping remains constant. Assuming China doesn't enact protectionist policies to placate internal tensions as they transition to a consumer economy. Assuming the adoption of just-in-time robotic manufacturing with 3D printing (and the extreme customization/personalization it allows) doesn't become "the price of entry" to certain markets.

sien 12y ago

Wages are far from the only cost in manufacturing. Indeed, they are becoming less important as automation comes in more and more. Infrastructure, in particular energy and transport are critical, as is secure legal rights and access to markets. Also you need a population that has decent high school level education. There really isn't another China. Nothing of the size and with the infrastructure is around. Costs have reached a point where the US is competitive again for things that 15 years ago would have been made in China. Here are some articles discussing it: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-25/china-vs-dot-the-u-dot-s-dot-its-just-as-cheap-to-make-goods-in-the-u-dot-s-dot-a http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-25/china-vs-dot... http://www.economist.com/node/21549956 http://www.economist.com/node/21549956 This is really a great thing for the world. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people are now much wealthier than they were 20 years ago.