5 ms·

Automation tends to hit at the middle, not the bottom. For example, blacksmiths got replaced by automation. Highly skilled labor, replaced by machines + lower/

by slurry 12y ago

Automation tends to hit at the middle, not the bottom. For example, blacksmiths got replaced by automation. Highly skilled labor, replaced by machines + lower/unskilled labor. Burger automation is the fantasy of automating all the way to the bottom of the skill pile. But I would put my money on new waves of automation that disrupt skilled labor. There may come a day when we reach the bottom of the pile and utopia/dystopia is realized, but I don't think that day is today.

erichocean 12y ago
> Burger automation is the fantasy of automating all the way to the bottom of the skill pile. Automatic dishwashers, laundry machines, vacuums, automatic car washes are all widely known examples of replacing low-skill labor with machines. There's also the enormous amount of low-skill labor that's been removed in agriculture and the building trade (think: digging ditches by hand, which they still do in 3rd world countries). Even food preparation labor has been dramatically reduced already at home thanks to the microwave and the logistic possibility of shipping and storing frozen foods (not to mention the proliferation of restaurants). Low-skill activities are almost always the easiest things to automate (that's why we call them "low skill"). Things that require fuzzy human judgement, like managing people, are hard—if not impossible—to automate.
- LukeB_UK 12y ago
  I'd say cooking requires human judgement. Mainly in the "nope, that's going to kill someone" category.
- fred_durst 12y ago
  Managing people is absolutely, 100% for at least the last 10 years, being aggressively and successfully being reduced to low skill labor. For example, things like ordering inventory, scheduling staff, pricing products are all done at significantly lower pay rates than were done in the past. The only thing that has slowed some of the automation is simply a shorter route to developing nation outsourcing. The reason developing countries still dig ditches by hand is because it is still cheaper. The reason for that is not access to automation but the massive wage differential that makes that labor so cheap. Its the low cost of the labor that actually protects it from automation. So therefore it follows that expensive(high and mid skill labor which is even more scalable due to lower material costs since it can typically be automated without machines) will be the most profitable segment to either automate away or reduce to low skill labor.
  - erichocean 12y ago
    > Managing people is absolutely, 100% for at least the last 10 years, being aggressively and successfully being reduced to low skill labor. I absolutely agree. One of the startups I'm CTO at builds software that enables exactly that; however, it also results in new jobs being created at a higher-level (similar to the situation with robots I suppose).
    - fred_durst 12y ago
      By "higher level" do you mean people who can convince others to do things? That seems to me to be the last higher paid/skill position that will remain for some time. Which causes me to fear that all we will be left with is aggressive sales people and business owners.
- forgotpasswd3x 12y ago
  Even with the invention of automatic dishwashers over 100 years ago, restaurants still employ dishwashers…
  - learc83 12y ago
    Yeah, but think about how many extra human dishwashers we'd need without automatic dishwashers. Most automation doesn't completely replace humans, it just allows them to be more efficient so less people can do the same amount of work.
learc83 12y ago
Compare the average number of servants per household in 1900 to the average number today--decimated by domestic automation. Many crops are harvested by machines, replacing some of the absolute lowest skilled jobs. And how many tellers have been replaced by ATMs, factory works by industrial robots, or secretaries by computers?
- walshemj 12y ago
  ww1 and social changes like more women working in factories rather that in service have as much to do with that as the rise of the hoover
  - learc83 12y ago
    Definitely. But without domestic automation and electricity, the demand for servants wouldn't have changed much. A large household would be impossible to run without either modern technology or servants, so you'd have seen a large increase in wages. The number of servants wouldn't have changed nearly as much as it did.
- deleted 12y ago
  [deleted]
wavefunction 12y ago
Blacksmiths are still around - perhaps in greatly diminished numbers - but there are things that blacksmiths can do that robots cannot. Like create work with original aesthetics that appeal to human beings for decorative/ornamental metal-work.

by slurry 12y ago

erichocean 12y ago

> Burger automation is the fantasy of automating all the way to the bottom of the skill pile. Automatic dishwashers, laundry machines, vacuums, automatic car washes are all widely known examples of replacing low-skill labor with machines. There's also the enormous amount of low-skill labor that's been removed in agriculture and the building trade (think: digging ditches by hand, which they still do in 3rd world countries). Even food preparation labor has been dramatically reduced already at home thanks to the microwave and the logistic possibility of shipping and storing frozen foods (not to mention the proliferation of restaurants). Low-skill activities are almost always the easiest things to automate (that's why we call them "low skill"). Things that require fuzzy human judgement, like managing people, are hard—if not impossible—to automate.

LukeB_UK 12y ago
I'd say cooking requires human judgement. Mainly in the "nope, that's going to kill someone" category.
fred_durst 12y ago
Managing people is absolutely, 100% for at least the last 10 years, being aggressively and successfully being reduced to low skill labor. For example, things like ordering inventory, scheduling staff, pricing products are all done at significantly lower pay rates than were done in the past. The only thing that has slowed some of the automation is simply a shorter route to developing nation outsourcing. The reason developing countries still dig ditches by hand is because it is still cheaper. The reason for that is not access to automation but the massive wage differential that makes that labor so cheap. Its the low cost of the labor that actually protects it from automation. So therefore it follows that expensive(high and mid skill labor which is even more scalable due to lower material costs since it can typically be automated without machines) will be the most profitable segment to either automate away or reduce to low skill labor.
- erichocean 12y ago
  > Managing people is absolutely, 100% for at least the last 10 years, being aggressively and successfully being reduced to low skill labor. I absolutely agree. One of the startups I'm CTO at builds software that enables exactly that; however, it also results in new jobs being created at a higher-level (similar to the situation with robots I suppose).
  - fred_durst 12y ago
    By "higher level" do you mean people who can convince others to do things? That seems to me to be the last higher paid/skill position that will remain for some time. Which causes me to fear that all we will be left with is aggressive sales people and business owners.
forgotpasswd3x 12y ago
Even with the invention of automatic dishwashers over 100 years ago, restaurants still employ dishwashers…
- learc83 12y ago
  Yeah, but think about how many extra human dishwashers we'd need without automatic dishwashers. Most automation doesn't completely replace humans, it just allows them to be more efficient so less people can do the same amount of work.

learc83 12y ago

Compare the average number of servants per household in 1900 to the average number today--decimated by domestic automation. Many crops are harvested by machines, replacing some of the absolute lowest skilled jobs. And how many tellers have been replaced by ATMs, factory works by industrial robots, or secretaries by computers?

walshemj 12y ago
ww1 and social changes like more women working in factories rather that in service have as much to do with that as the rise of the hoover
- learc83 12y ago
  Definitely. But without domestic automation and electricity, the demand for servants wouldn't have changed much. A large household would be impossible to run without either modern technology or servants, so you'd have seen a large increase in wages. The number of servants wouldn't have changed nearly as much as it did.
deleted 12y ago
[deleted]

wavefunction 12y ago

Blacksmiths are still around - perhaps in greatly diminished numbers - but there are things that blacksmiths can do that robots cannot. Like create work with original aesthetics that appeal to human beings for decorative/ornamental metal-work.