4 ms·

I think automation will happen sooner than we expect. 5-8 years seems likely to me. There is a hurdle with interstate trucking, where some states will lag behin

by msane 12y ago

I think automation will happen sooner than we expect. 5-8 years seems likely to me. There is a hurdle with interstate trucking, where some states will lag behind in allowing it and providing the required bureaucratic support. But it is already technologically possible, if not yet a fully developed product. It just takes one company to get it allowed in one state and start doing it, the others will follow. Self driving personal vehicles are 1-3 years away from being on the market, it seems natural that trucking will follow. I think trained people might still handle the parking though for a while :P

georgemcbay 12y ago
Parking shouldn't be a difficult task for a self-driving truck; but I suspect there will be a 'driver' along for the ride well after the task is mostly automated, just to deal with exceptional circumstances (eg. flash flood has made road impassable in some way the automated truck cannot deal with) and also to act as a security guard so nobody robs the robo-truck.
- smm2000 12y ago
  I doubt security guard is really required, at least in US, Europe and most other developed countries. Container is closed and it's easy to install device that calls police in case it's opened mid-way. Also most trucks transport goods that are difficult to steal and sell profitably (low price, high weight - think groceries, furniture, etc).
  - 6d0debc071 12y ago
    Theft from HGVs isn't hugely rare. People will cut right through the side of them. I think it was on the order of £25-30 million a year in the UK, last I checked (2010-ish) And then there's the value of the fuel in the vehicle.
  - msane 12y ago
    Oh I definitely think any sort of time spent stationary by a truck full of goods is a security concern. The places you mention are obviously the safest in the world but there are certainly people who will rob (burglarize?) trucks if given the right opportunity.
- msane 12y ago
  I was thinking about this. Straightforward parking is easy to automate. With big-rig parking there are a lot of really variable situations around loading bays. Often ramps and poles and dumpsters that could potentially roll around. I think of a lot of suburban shopping complexes in the middle of residential areas where neighborhood kids may be playing in the lot. So yes, I could see parking needing to be human-supervised. Though not necessarily even needing to be by someone in the truck. Perhaps just by someone at the receiving area. Probably an employee of the receiving bay who has a special license. When the truck arrives they have to "authorize" the parking, which acknowledges they inspected the the loading area and will watch the truck perform docking. Whether there is someone in the truck at all times is a hard prediction. I also think that these trucks will have remote operation override, which was mentioned elsewhere on this thread (even as an alternative to / cultural introduction to / slippery slope for - full automation). Remote operation is the ideal solution for any kind of exception, short of failure of the remote operation system :P
A_COMPUTER 12y ago
My impression from riding along with my parents is that every day is filled with mostly improvisation. From dealing with bad, aggressive drivers who will get you and themselves killed, to rapidly changing road and weather conditions, to widely disparate entrances and loading docks, inaccurate GPS, etc. it just seems like the times that the self-driving would benefit are so infrequent with regular cross-country driving and delivery. This seems so different than a self-driving car that mostly is going to take you to and from work and the grocery store, etc. There is also the liability issue, I mentioned that things are rigged to dump the hassles on the drivers and this is one of them. You're economically pressured to falsify log data, so when you nod off and accidentally kill some people, your employer is off the hook. A nice working self-driving truck would reduce fatalities caused by gross driver error, but I guess it would put the trucking company back on the hook in the cases where a catastrophe did happen. In the short term self-driving vehicles might be undesirable to some companies because it might eliminate their ability to shove negative externalities onto a third party (the drivers.) self-driving commercial trucks will happen, I just think 5-8 years is not likely.
- msane 12y ago
  Interesting. Yes I can imagine it being exception after exception. The liable party point is definitely an interesting factor. I guess it would be arranged by contract to flow through to the company providing the automation system or the trucks themselves. Not that the distribution company wouldn't have responsibilities in the event of an accident they would otherwise have figured a way out of, and other new diligence in general. Whatever system does it, it will have to be able to handle a bunch of wild situations autonomously. After thinking about it I don't think any sort of remote operation can be relied on as a technology to the degree that hypothetical laws would require.
- olalonde 12y ago
  Maybe they will initially be used for long straight lines on highways and the human drivers will only be responsible for the "last mile" drive.
  - the_ancient 12y ago

by msane 12y ago

georgemcbay 12y ago

Parking shouldn't be a difficult task for a self-driving truck; but I suspect there will be a 'driver' along for the ride well after the task is mostly automated, just to deal with exceptional circumstances (eg. flash flood has made road impassable in some way the automated truck cannot deal with) and also to act as a security guard so nobody robs the robo-truck.

smm2000 12y ago
I doubt security guard is really required, at least in US, Europe and most other developed countries. Container is closed and it's easy to install device that calls police in case it's opened mid-way. Also most trucks transport goods that are difficult to steal and sell profitably (low price, high weight - think groceries, furniture, etc).
- 6d0debc071 12y ago
  Theft from HGVs isn't hugely rare. People will cut right through the side of them. I think it was on the order of £25-30 million a year in the UK, last I checked (2010-ish) And then there's the value of the fuel in the vehicle.
- msane 12y ago
  Oh I definitely think any sort of time spent stationary by a truck full of goods is a security concern. The places you mention are obviously the safest in the world but there are certainly people who will rob (burglarize?) trucks if given the right opportunity.
msane 12y ago
I was thinking about this. Straightforward parking is easy to automate. With big-rig parking there are a lot of really variable situations around loading bays. Often ramps and poles and dumpsters that could potentially roll around. I think of a lot of suburban shopping complexes in the middle of residential areas where neighborhood kids may be playing in the lot. So yes, I could see parking needing to be human-supervised. Though not necessarily even needing to be by someone in the truck. Perhaps just by someone at the receiving area. Probably an employee of the receiving bay who has a special license. When the truck arrives they have to "authorize" the parking, which acknowledges they inspected the the loading area and will watch the truck perform docking. Whether there is someone in the truck at all times is a hard prediction. I also think that these trucks will have remote operation override, which was mentioned elsewhere on this thread (even as an alternative to / cultural introduction to / slippery slope for - full automation). Remote operation is the ideal solution for any kind of exception, short of failure of the remote operation system :P

A_COMPUTER 12y ago

My impression from riding along with my parents is that every day is filled with mostly improvisation. From dealing with bad, aggressive drivers who will get you and themselves killed, to rapidly changing road and weather conditions, to widely disparate entrances and loading docks, inaccurate GPS, etc. it just seems like the times that the self-driving would benefit are so infrequent with regular cross-country driving and delivery. This seems so different than a self-driving car that mostly is going to take you to and from work and the grocery store, etc. There is also the liability issue, I mentioned that things are rigged to dump the hassles on the drivers and this is one of them. You're economically pressured to falsify log data, so when you nod off and accidentally kill some people, your employer is off the hook. A nice working self-driving truck would reduce fatalities caused by gross driver error, but I guess it would put the trucking company back on the hook in the cases where a catastrophe did happen. In the short term self-driving vehicles might be undesirable to some companies because it might eliminate their ability to shove negative externalities onto a third party (the drivers.) self-driving commercial trucks will happen, I just think 5-8 years is not likely.

msane 12y ago
Interesting. Yes I can imagine it being exception after exception. The liable party point is definitely an interesting factor. I guess it would be arranged by contract to flow through to the company providing the automation system or the trucks themselves. Not that the distribution company wouldn't have responsibilities in the event of an accident they would otherwise have figured a way out of, and other new diligence in general. Whatever system does it, it will have to be able to handle a bunch of wild situations autonomously. After thinking about it I don't think any sort of remote operation can be relied on as a technology to the degree that hypothetical laws would require.
olalonde 12y ago
Maybe they will initially be used for long straight lines on highways and the human drivers will only be responsible for the "last mile" drive.
- the_ancient 12y ago