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It's simply a historical observation. If it was obvious what kind of jobs there would be in the future, companies would have already sprang up around those idea
by john_b 12y ago
It's simply a historical observation. If it was obvious what kind of jobs there would be in the future, companies would have already sprang up around those ideas and would be hiring, which would make them the jobs of today. Anything less would be equivalent to the whole world having an understanding that Apple stock will rise by 100% in the next two years but nobody buying it.
Basically, the future is unknowable. But as Marc Andressen likes to say, human needs and wants are unlimited. As long as people can provide for the wants and needs of others via jobs, there will be jobs.
I'd take it one step further, in fact. If we imagine the robot dominated future that so many people fear, it stands to reason (given human nature) that robot-produced goods and services will be viewed as inferior, cheaper, or less personal than human-produced goods. Robots and AI are by nature easily copyable, thus fungible. Sure, AI can be trained and tailored to specific needs, but competitors can simply copy the successful training methods once they are apparent.
A widespread perception of AI/robot produced goods/services as inferior or less personal will happen irrespective of the actual merits of of the products and services in question. There will probably be a few field-specific exceptions to this, but primarily in areas where exact precision, scalability, or replicability are the primary competitive advantages (precision machinery, automobiles, aircraft, etc).
In industries that are very cost or precision-sensitive, robotic automation will do well. In industries sensitive to quality of service, humans will still be useful.
Ordinary products such as food & clothing, and especially services, can be marketed based on a "human touch and taste" differentiating advantage that robot-based corporations will be unable to compete with. You can go into RoboDonalds and order your hamburger with all the ingredients you want, and that will be fine. Or you can go into a traditional steakhouse, talk with the chef about the cuts of meat available, select one, tell him/her how you'd like it prepared, and enjoy conversing with the waitstaff. Until AI can hold human-like conversations and understand all the nuances of human communication, any product or service that differentiates itself based on a non-trivial communication with the customer will be robust to AI/robotic disruption.
- pinkyand 12y agoYes, it's an historical observation. But it would be very interesting imagine/inquire how it could manifest in the future.And BTW - science fiction authors did predict something generally similar to the iPhone. OK ,it's possible that robot produced goods will be perceived as inferior, but judging the popularity of today's hand made goods vs machines made goods it might not be a big factor - but who knows. It's also possible that people would be interested in being serviced by a human and not a robot. It's interesting to think such a world, where more than 50% of your wages are purely going towards buying relationships - and most of the work time of people is purely selling relationships. It seems pretty lousy - but it's possible.