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Reading articles like this I'm often reminded of Amara's Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect
by jbarrow 12y ago
Reading articles like this I'm often reminded of Amara's Law:
"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."
In terms of overestimation in the short term, it seems to me that although we are trending towards automative technologies, 11 years seems like far too short a span for those technologies to have "displaced significant numbers of both blue- and white-collar workers."
Meanwhile, in the long term, the time frame these technologies actually need to have fully permeated, we don't know what types of jobs or how many will be brought about by their existence.
- tmp1234519029 12y agoExactly my feeling. Although I can't blame someone for overestimating the impact of automation on his jobs and preparing for it. Those who underestimate AIs will pay a hefty price. Anyway, I don't think the "when" is really interesting to think about, especially when it's an arbitrary date. I prefer to ponder on much more significant and inevitable events/thresholds such as when AIs will surpass humans in every aspect. In my opinion, as long as AIs are inferior to humans in terms of intelligence, there will be jobs for most people, but past this point the concept of "work" is not event relevant anymore. And don't tell me "people will always need interaction with other people". That's clearly underestimating the capacity of future generations to identify with highly intelligent and sentient robots.