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Except in this case, he would have a 50% success rate. When you compare that to investment newsletters, fortune tellers, economists or anyone else who tries to
by mattm 17y ago
Except in this case, he would have a 50% success rate. When you compare that to investment newsletters, fortune tellers, economists or anyone else who tries to predict the future, this guy would probably come out at the top of the list.
- mseebach 17y agoMost investment newsletters I've come across showcases a significant better than 50% buy/sell recommendation success rate, that's how they get people to listen to them. All those other guys predict non-binary scenarios. If I try to predict the result of a dice-throw by throwing a dice myself, I'll get a success-rate of exactly 1/6, but when factoring in the number of outcome scenarios, I'm doing exactly as well as the coin-tosser.
- CodeMage 17y agoNot really. Take any investment newsletter, fortune teller, economist or "anyone else who tries to predict the future" and ask them that same question, "What gender will my baby be?" The worst success rate any of them can have is the success rate of random guessing.
- ironkeith 17y agoIt's not quite 50%, males are born slightly more often than females. Something like for every 105 boys born there are 100 girls. You can stack the odds a little more in your favour by always guessing "boy".