HIV and Malaria are both broadly endemic in Africa, including some conflict areas - it's going to be a long tough slog to rid the world of them. This breakout

HIV and Malaria are both broadly endemic in Africa, including some conflict areas - it's going to be a long tough slog to rid the world of them. This breakout of Ebola is geographically isolated, and its nature (short infection period, burns out quickly, hard to catch) - makes it something that a strong effort right now would absolutely shut down. Regarding modeling the disease - yes, of course - from that perspective I can see how useful it would be to model, but the assumption should be pretty explicit. I.E. "Assuming traditional regional responses to this disease, this is what we would expect" - to make it clear that this is a model, and not a prediction.