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I don't disagree, but my hypothetical assumes that no one has done the experiment before making their belief known.
by aston 19y ago
I don't disagree, but my hypothetical assumes that no one has done the experiment before making their belief known.
- jey 19y agoSounds like an unreasonable assumption. Either way, it's not about "wrong" or "right", it's only about what can be derived from evidence. Without evidence you have no justification to assign a higher probability to "2 + 2 = 4" than "2 + 2 = 3". Caveat: It's true that some knowledge does have to be put into the prior distribution. Apparently you can't just bootstrap from a zero-information ("maximum entropy") prior. So it's possible that 2 + 2 = 4 is burned into our brains at birth.
- whacked_new 19y ago> So it's possible that 2 + 2 = 4 is burned into our brains at birth. Yup, there is plentiful evidence... not specifically the addition, but 2 and 4 are innately perceptible quantities.