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> The war in Ukraine might be the tipping point, but not in the sense you would perhaps think. I'm curious what you mean by this (emphasis in particular) and w

> The war in Ukraine might be the tipping point, but not in the sense you would perhaps think. I'm curious what you mean by this (emphasis in particular) and would like to know more, if it's not asking too much.

maneesh 12y ago
sounds like the Ukraine war is having indirect effects, like the new law, that end up being the tipping point making him leave
guard-of-terra 12y ago
You would think that Putin will stand down over a strong applied force (for example, economic sanctions). No he won't. But. I expect it is possible for Putin to be torn apart by conflicting vectors of several forces - USA and Europe; oligarchs and business; and Russian people finally enter the play since it's them who wage the war in Ukraine. The tidal shocks may do what a single force won't.
- Zancarius 12y ago
  Part of me hopes you're right, but I'll be honest: Speaking as an American, I don't think the US or Europe have the gumption to face Putin head on with his domestic policies, no matter what ills he may bring about on the Russian people. Worse, I think some of our domestic problems will preoccupy us substantially in the coming years, although with an election coming up this year it's plausible stronger talk might supplant previous timidity. I know of a few politicians who have been reluctant to take a stance on Ukraine simply on the merit that they're afraid they might be accused of attempting to reignite the Cold War. Although, I think I see what you're getting at: Multiple forces, political, economic, and domestic could force his hand--I just have very little faith in my government doing the Right Thing in light of recent revelations (NSA, et al) and it's unlikely we'll be of any help. In a way, I was rather hoping the downing of MH17 might've triggered sufficient outrage to dampen the conflict in Ukraine and perhaps prevent Putin from continuing down the road of stripping away citizens' rights, but I guess that's premature? (Sadly, few here in the US even care--I'm not even sure how many people are aware of the downing.) Thanks for taking the time to answer my question. Much appreciated.
  - guard-of-terra 12y ago
    "I just have very little faith in my government doing the Right Thing" This doesn't matter, as I tried to tell you. The vector direction is not important, applied force is. Then we expect the regime either tearing apart or losing balance. UPD: "and perhaps prevent Putin from continuing down the road of stripping away citizens' rights" We don't care anymore. He has already broke so many things that we don't care for the rest, rather for a reboot. And he's not gaining balance by breaking more things.

maneesh 12y ago

sounds like the Ukraine war is having indirect effects, like the new law, that end up being the tipping point making him leave

guard-of-terra 12y ago

You would think that Putin will stand down over a strong applied force (for example, economic sanctions). No he won't. But. I expect it is possible for Putin to be torn apart by conflicting vectors of several forces - USA and Europe; oligarchs and business; and Russian people finally enter the play since it's them who wage the war in Ukraine. The tidal shocks may do what a single force won't.

Zancarius 12y ago
Part of me hopes you're right, but I'll be honest: Speaking as an American, I don't think the US or Europe have the gumption to face Putin head on with his domestic policies, no matter what ills he may bring about on the Russian people. Worse, I think some of our domestic problems will preoccupy us substantially in the coming years, although with an election coming up this year it's plausible stronger talk might supplant previous timidity. I know of a few politicians who have been reluctant to take a stance on Ukraine simply on the merit that they're afraid they might be accused of attempting to reignite the Cold War. Although, I think I see what you're getting at: Multiple forces, political, economic, and domestic could force his hand--I just have very little faith in my government doing the Right Thing in light of recent revelations (NSA, et al) and it's unlikely we'll be of any help. In a way, I was rather hoping the downing of MH17 might've triggered sufficient outrage to dampen the conflict in Ukraine and perhaps prevent Putin from continuing down the road of stripping away citizens' rights, but I guess that's premature? (Sadly, few here in the US even care--I'm not even sure how many people are aware of the downing.) Thanks for taking the time to answer my question. Much appreciated.
- guard-of-terra 12y ago
  "I just have very little faith in my government doing the Right Thing" This doesn't matter, as I tried to tell you. The vector direction is not important, applied force is. Then we expect the regime either tearing apart or losing balance. UPD: "and perhaps prevent Putin from continuing down the road of stripping away citizens' rights" We don't care anymore. He has already broke so many things that we don't care for the rest, rather for a reboot. And he's not gaining balance by breaking more things.