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Everybody involved in the 2001 default knew this was going to happen. And it can even be said that Argentina didn’t plan to pay what they promised from the begi
by dieg0 12y ago
Everybody involved in the 2001 default knew this was going to happen. And it can even be said that Argentina didn’t plan to pay what they promised from the beginning, although I cannot attest to it.
One detail I want to add to the discussion is that in the past few years the global panorama changed for Argentina, they sit on top of the second largest shale gas reserve in the world, and plan to extract it. They need money to start working and suddenly felt the urge to settle this issue.
Known fact: There is the Argentinean way of doing things, not straightforward, which is why talking about the bondholders like victims sounds naïve. They saw they might get their money now, and with Argentina’s shell gas urge probably felt the call to make more.
To me there is a larger scope, take a look at tech companies like Google and Facebook, they placed their head regional offices in Argentina. Both companies knew well in advance that the political and judicial system in Argentina is completely corrupt but still decided to direct their regional efforts from Buenos Aires. Why would anyone place offices in Argentina, when there is Chile, Perú or Colombia, countries that have greater political, social and economic stability, extremely better infrastructure, better weather and even tastier food.
I could be going paranoid but I believe it is simple; it looks like the big guys like to get in bed with the naughty ones, rather than the honest and better-behaved gals around the corner. This makes sense to me, after all, the bigger the risk the greater the possible reward.
The country is extremely wealthy, but that wealth is not getting to everyone (not that uncommon), and maybe that’s why the demonization of the international monetary funds has so much appeal locally. The certainty is that by the end of this story, it will be the Argentinean people who will be paying for this.
- brohee 12y agoColombia is in what could be called a civil war without exaggerating too much, it's not like a FARC like organization controls large swath of Argentina. Why do you call Colombia more stable?
- dieg0 12y agoYou are right, things have changed in Colombia, but might be too early to say it is more stable
- Shorel 12y agoChile is more stable, Colombia has better weather and Perú has tastier food.
- daniel-cussen 12y agoChile also has better weather, though I agree that Perú has tastier food.