4 ms·
Not really -- it's an event that has been expected for a while. CDS dominoes usually start falling when a significant AND unexpected event happens ('black swan'
by sz4kerto 12y ago
Not really -- it's an event that has been expected for a while. CDS dominoes usually start falling when a significant AND unexpected event happens ('black swan'). Argentina in default is moderately significant but not unexpected.
In other words, sudden changes in valuations cause a problem. Their government bond valuations have slowly approached zero therefore there's no sudden jump. The value of the CDSs does not change suddenly when Argentina is formally considered default if everybody has expected that outcome.