I think the core of the argument is that most software problems are becoming easier, which means the talents of the very best just aren't applicable or especial

I think the core of the argument is that most software problems are becoming easier, which means the talents of the very best just aren't applicable or especially useful. If something is easy enough, anybody can do it, and do it nearly as well and as fast as the best. For example, nobody can flip burgers 10x faster than average. Maybe 2x, but not 10x. If something is difficult, then many people won't be able to do it at all. Most of the rest may only be able to do it very slowly and with great difficulty. The very best will make it look easy, even though it's not. When something becomes 10 times easier, that doesn't mean the best become 10 times better or faster at it. They may become a little faster, but the real gains are at the low end: The average and worst performers become significantly better. Further, many people who just can't do the thing become able to accomplish it.