Gerstenzang is watching the latest complexification of small shops into huge industries and projecting it onto the entire field. This is very silly reasoning an

Gerstenzang is watching the latest complexification of small shops into huge industries and projecting it onto the entire field. This is very silly reasoning and it ignores history. Transported back in time, he could say the same thing watching the small, passionate computer shops of the 1970s becoming huge organizations as customer money and investment capital flow in, as more engineers are hired, as efficiencies and industry-wide standardization set in. He could say that the emergence of low-skill labor in the mature industry was the end of engineering, that there was nothing more to do. But there will always be a new layer to this game. Once the previous layer has walked its arc from hobbyist to small shops to huge industries and maturity, there emerges a ragtag group that takes advantage of the new environment. Gerstenzang does identify and appreciate this crucial factor, he just seems to view it as an endpoint and not a beginning. Of course, an AI that can do real, human-level engineering might throw my own entire line of reasoning out of the window.