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Japan engaged in quantitative easing for a decade and never had inflation. Correct. Instead they had the "Lost Decade" of economic stagnation, as it is known t
by miked 17y ago
Japan engaged in quantitative easing for a decade and never had inflation.
Correct. Instead they had the "Lost Decade" of economic stagnation, as it is known there (and here). It's actually been much longer than a decade now (it started in the early nineties). A few weeks ago it cost the governing party, which has been in power for 53 of the last 54 years, control of the government.
Money follows the law of supply and demand as much as anything else. When the supply of it (relative to the supply of goods and services) goes up, the price (value) of it goes down: inflation. So one of two things has to happen: either the Fed lets that money stay in circulation, triggering a boom in the short term followed by inflation in the long term, or they start sopping it up and "burning" it, which will trigger a downturn.
Think about it this way: if all we had to do was to trun on the printing presses to make economic magic happen, why wouldn't we do it all the time? Inflation is the worst form of taxation, because it causes such massive economic distortion, as we've recently seen in the housing market. The Fed pumped up the money supply and people watched their home's valuation go up 10% or more a year. They then made bad economic decisions based on the false idea that it was real. And now we have the current mess.
- jhancock 17y agoI agree. However, your leaving out a large part of the debt structure. Well, you point to it a bit "They then made bad economic decisions based on the false idea that it was real". If it were only values of homes that dropped, it wouldn't be so bad as those assets are still valuable in that they are standing homes and can be used without regard to their value. There is a much larger debt bubble of more "perishable" product in wide ranging industries (supply chain, international investment, etc) some of which originated based on real estate value. The Fed has clearly staked out its path. Nowhere to go now but to continue down it.