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"Failing to predict the future does not prove something is not scientific." Good point, thanks.
by juvenn 17y ago
"Failing to predict the future does not prove something is not scientific."
Good point, thanks.
- onreact-com 17y agoYeah, but when everybody tells you to invest while the market is about to break down then there must be something wrong with the model.
- Tichy 17y agoIn general I don't think it is the economists who tell you what stock to buy.
- onreact-com 17y agoNo "what" stock but that you should invest instead of a warning that the economy will break down soon. Most economists (something like 99,9%) failed to do so.
- juvenn 17y agoIf all of the economists say that economy will break down next Monday, guess what? People will sell stocks in hand, and the economy will go down indeed, besides what is in truth. Since people are adaptive, they make decisions according messages they collected.
- onreact-com 17y agoIt's the job of economists to predict stuff like that to actually prevent it.
- jwhite 17y agoBut if the technique in question was promoted as a scientific means of doing just that, then you have to question it, and its proponents. LTCM is the example that springs to mind.
- juvenn 17y agoYeh, you make the point. So there are economists who claims that future is unpredictable, like Xiaokai Yang[1]. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiaokai_Yang http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xiaokai_Yang