There's no evidence here that successful seed companies are more likely to look like bad ideas than unsuccessful seed companies. If 4/5 black swans look like ba

There's no evidence here that successful seed companies are more likely to look like bad ideas than unsuccessful seed companies. If 4/5 black swans look like bad ideas when they start, but 4000/5000 of this year's startups also look like bad ideas, then there's no effect to explain. The only lesson is that seed investing is just throwing darts.