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I don't see Postol claiming that it doesn't work -- his report is full of theory but very low on numbers. Rather, it seems he is calling for the defenders of t
by danielweber 12y ago
I don't see Postol claiming that it doesn't work -- his report is full of theory but very low on numbers. Rather, it seems he is calling for the defenders of the system to provide verifiable numbers, such as "140 inbound targets were defended against, and here are the timestamps, and we intercepted 130 of them, given these timestamps," which could then be checked.
Watching from the outside, I have no particular reason to believe one side or the other.
- bediger4000 12y agoPostol says maybe 5% of the Iron Dome rockets destroy their targets. A CNN page claimed 95%. This latest Krebs article has the IDF saying 20%. This whole argument smells like a modern military getting everybody to believe that "Iron Dome is 95% effective", just like everybody knows that the Patriot system was 95% or more effective during Desert Storm I. Or like everybody knows that WMD were found in Iraq after the USA invaded. That is, Iron Dome is more of a propaganda tool than a real defense system, or maybe its more of a way to funnel money to Rafael and IAI than a real defense system. I doubt we'll ever know. Statistically speaking, there's only a few real secrets, but there's lots and lots of career-ending blunders, accounting oddities, and systems gaming.