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The New Nostradamus (2007)
- deleted 17y ago[deleted]
- itistoday 17y agoThis story is straight out of Asimov's Foundation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hari_Seldon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29
- kragen 17y agoHow far ahead is Bueno de Mesquita forecasting? Two years?
- Confusion 17y agoAs always in such cases, the article is devoid of relevant content that could actually bring a scientific mind to even remotely consider the possibility that it might be true. The fundamental questions that always prop up are not being answered: how many predictions were made and what were the exact phrasings?
- almost 17y agoExactly, the article is full of impressive sounding stuff but no real information. So what if random-guy-I've-never-heard-of was impressed by his predictions, even if said guy does/did work for the CIA. This would appear to be a very simple matter to settle, show a bunch of predictions and see how many are correct and how many fail. Even showing a few of his previous predictions would be interesting, along as you didn't do something absolutely moronic like cherry pick the ones that turned out to be correct (but oh what a surprise, the journalist goes and does that exact thing at the bottom of the article). So most likely just a bunch of bullshit reported by and incredulous reporter with no notion of critical thinking.
- jsomers 17y agoA list of the predictions this guy got right (at the end of the article, and sprinkled throughout) is near useless when unaccompanied by a list of everything he got wrong.
- calcnerd256 17y agoJust like the real Nostradamus.
- JacobAldridge 17y agoAbsolutely. Loses credibility by not discussing what he got wrong, and then calling this a prediction: "Predicted China’s reclaiming of Hong Kong and the exact manner the handover would take place, 12 years before it happened." Britain had a 99 year lease which began in 1898. Predicting it would end in 1997 requires slightly-more-simple math than game theory. I would posit most people could have predicted that more than 12 years before it happened.
- yters 17y agoI want to know how his technique works. Anyone have links?
- varjag 17y agoIt is interesting that the Republican candidate (which he apparently backed) did not make it through last year despite all voodoo and magic.