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I have a theory why successful 'old' guys come as such a surprise. It is because a 'young founder' is largely a product of propaganda. Young guys are mercilessl
by 1gor 17y ago
I have a theory why successful 'old' guys come as such a surprise. It is because a 'young founder' is largely a product of propaganda. Young guys are mercilessly exploited by VC crowd. Venture Capitalists and startup-buying companies like Google (should I also add incubators like YC?) need to maintain 'young is good' thesis to attract the supply of fresh cannon fodder.
The truth is that a VC sits on a portfolio of undervalued options. A success among pool of startups is always a non-linear event. It is a meteoric rise, a market-share grab which often actually creates a completely new market. A very few successful startups will make a large pool of dog investments still a very profitable business. One option will fire, the rest will expire worthless.
That's why a VC has to drive all of his startups towards increasing risk and trying to grow big, fast. Go for a large team. Invest, borrow, rise capital. One of you will win, the rist... what do I care?
Now, from the point of view of entrepreneurs, they often get a very poor deal. An engineer has only one option in his portfolio -- that is his venture. Its success is largely dependent on random factors like stumbling on a network effect, or tapping a new undiscovered need of millions. What would be a true price of such an option?
Whatever the price, young guys have poor bargaining power at the negotiating table facing seasoned VCs. Older guys do better. For a young guy a startup is not only a way to riches -- it is also a way to self-actualise, to define one's identify. An old guy does not need this crap. He has accomplishment behind his belt. He can drive a hard bargain and to get better deal from a VC. He is driven to get a good business deal, and will not go dancing across the room just because his name features in some crappy termsheet.
An old hand is also more likely to take less risk and to shoot for a long term, VC appetite be damned. They will be practicing more 37signals-like approach. Profitable? Have positive cashflow? Great! And fuck your IPO plans, at least until I feel the time is right.
So, it is no wonder that older founders have better success rates. They exploit the VC industry when they want to, not the other way around.
- pg 17y agoYour theory is about a third right. Young founders do get more attention from the press. But not because of propaganda campaigns by their investors. The press doesn't have to be talked into it: they already have a bias toward writing about young founders. And it's definitely false that VCs prefer founders who are young because they can be pushed around. VCs are very unlikely to invest in someone they can push around. Nothing turns them off like weakness.
- jacquesm 17y agoAre you willing to share the number of companies YC has invested in where founders were in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s or older ?
- pg 17y agoI don't actually know the numbers. We don't keep track. But I know there haven't been any with founders in their 50s, and only 2 or 3 with founders in their 40s or their teens. Most founders are in their 20s or 30s. Completely guessing, I'd say 15-20% have founders in their 30s.
- YuriNiyazov 17y agoHave you noticed any correlation between age and failure?
- pg 17y agoOff the top of my head, I'd say that older founders are more likely to succeed. They don't give up so easily. On the other hand, they also tend to have much higher burn rates, which make their startups easier for circumstances to kill.
- deleted 17y ago[deleted]
- 10ren 17y agoAnother factor is that older founders will have (relatively) less need of YC: they'll have their own funds, experience and contacts. The age-distribution of YC startup applicants affects the age-distribution of those that are funded, and so doesn't necessarily generalize to all startups. E.g. Adobe was founded by a couple of guys in their 40's.
- yters 17y agoI've been curious about the phenomena of successful young startups in the media. Has the media always concentrated on such stories, exploiting people's hope to become an instant millionaire? Or is it a recent phenomena generated by the internet millionaires?
- andreyf 17y agoAt least since the 1690's: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_rush http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_rush