4 ms·

Can anyone give me an idea on what would happen if Ebola ever did get airborne? I know that its high mortality rate is a massive curb on its ability to spread,

Can anyone give me an idea on what would happen if Ebola ever did get airborne? I know that its high mortality rate is a massive curb on its ability to spread, but is that enough to put a dampener on spread if it became more easily transmittable?

placeybordeaux 12y ago
I don't think that is a thing that is really in the realm of possibility. We should probably be more concerend about a strain of the flu becoming deadlier.
- confluence 12y ago
  How would the world cope with a Spanish Flu like situation in 2014?
  - tomjen3 12y ago
    Badly. We can't cut of international commerce, the world would starve. We can't cut of international travel, the world would starve and there would be a ton of riots. If the outbreak is localized then we may have a change of putting a quarantine on the area, but I doubt it.
    - kryptiskt 12y ago
      On the other hand, international commerce is largely mechanized in the age of container and bulk shipping and happens without much human contact.
    - dredmorbius 12y ago
      The good news is that there's a pretty good capacity to move massive amounts of goods with very little human interaction. The bad news is that there's a hell of a lot of human movement, and you'd have to shut down much of that, as well as isolate carriers and exposed individuals as quickly as possible. Often in places (such as the present African outbreak) in which infrastructure, governance, and resources are exceptionally limited. The task of effectively controling all vectors would be a very high challenge. I'd say it would be an ugly time, all told.
    - kiiski 12y ago
      I would assume that all first world countries have stored food/medicine/oil/etc. for emergencies. At least Finland keeps enough for six months consumption (was 12 previously, but with the current economic troubles it was dropped to 6 a few months ago). Of course that wouldn't include all the luxuries, but enough to keep people alive and the important industries running. And I suppose there would still be trade with countries that are known to be safe.
      - imjustsaying 12y ago
        That would be an incorrect assumption in regards to the existence of medical stockpiles in all first world countries. For example the closest thing to a medical stockpile in the United States would be the current inventory on hand and what the public or private sector has stockpiled for its own limited audience. Perhaps there are exceptions for certain medications, but requiring 6-12 month stockpiles of certain medications tastes of corporatism.
  - rwallace 12y ago
    Empirically, the world in 2002 successfully dealt with exactly that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndro...
- bhickey 12y ago
  I wouldn't be so certain. Ebola can be transmitted between pigs and macaques via a respiratory path. http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00811.html http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00...
tomjen3 12y ago
It is a race between the incubation time (between 2 and 21 days) and the rate of transmission, including how long the virus can live in the air (huge difference between just a few seconds and a few hours) and where it is discovered. If it gets to a major airport we may be fucked. Also such a huge mutation may lower the deadliness of the illness.

placeybordeaux 12y ago

I don't think that is a thing that is really in the realm of possibility. We should probably be more concerend about a strain of the flu becoming deadlier.

confluence 12y ago
How would the world cope with a Spanish Flu like situation in 2014?
- tomjen3 12y ago
  Badly. We can't cut of international commerce, the world would starve. We can't cut of international travel, the world would starve and there would be a ton of riots. If the outbreak is localized then we may have a change of putting a quarantine on the area, but I doubt it.
  - kryptiskt 12y ago
    On the other hand, international commerce is largely mechanized in the age of container and bulk shipping and happens without much human contact.
  - dredmorbius 12y ago
    The good news is that there's a pretty good capacity to move massive amounts of goods with very little human interaction. The bad news is that there's a hell of a lot of human movement, and you'd have to shut down much of that, as well as isolate carriers and exposed individuals as quickly as possible. Often in places (such as the present African outbreak) in which infrastructure, governance, and resources are exceptionally limited. The task of effectively controling all vectors would be a very high challenge. I'd say it would be an ugly time, all told.
  - kiiski 12y ago
    I would assume that all first world countries have stored food/medicine/oil/etc. for emergencies. At least Finland keeps enough for six months consumption (was 12 previously, but with the current economic troubles it was dropped to 6 a few months ago). Of course that wouldn't include all the luxuries, but enough to keep people alive and the important industries running. And I suppose there would still be trade with countries that are known to be safe.
    - imjustsaying 12y ago
      That would be an incorrect assumption in regards to the existence of medical stockpiles in all first world countries. For example the closest thing to a medical stockpile in the United States would be the current inventory on hand and what the public or private sector has stockpiled for its own limited audience. Perhaps there are exceptions for certain medications, but requiring 6-12 month stockpiles of certain medications tastes of corporatism.
- rwallace 12y ago
  Empirically, the world in 2002 successfully dealt with exactly that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndro...
bhickey 12y ago
I wouldn't be so certain. Ebola can be transmitted between pigs and macaques via a respiratory path. http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00811.html http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00...

tomjen3 12y ago

It is a race between the incubation time (between 2 and 21 days) and the rate of transmission, including how long the virus can live in the air (huge difference between just a few seconds and a few hours) and where it is discovered. If it gets to a major airport we may be fucked. Also such a huge mutation may lower the deadliness of the illness.