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>but I assume after a disaster we would massively increase the rate of production and it wouldn't be as bad as some make out Unfortunately it's not so easy. A

by ddeck 12y ago

>but I assume after a disaster we would massively increase the rate of production and it wouldn't be as bad as some make out Unfortunately it's not so easy. A number of the raw materials have quite limited supply and even after production, transportation is very time consuming. Transportation can be shorted by producing locally, but in 2010, only 15% of large power transformers (>60 MVA) deployed in the US were supplied by domestic producers[1] (although domestic production capacity is increasing): LPTs require a long lead time, and transporting them can be challenging. The average lead time for an LPT is between five and 16 months; however, the lead time can extend beyond 20 months if there are any supply disruptions or delays with the supplies, raw materials, or key parts. Its large size and weight can further complicate the procurement process, because an LPT requires special arrangements and special rail cars for transport.[1] For more than you ever wanted to know on the subject, see the following: [1] http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/04/f15/LPTStudyUpdate-040914.pdf http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/04/f15/LPTStudyUpdat...

ars 12y ago
> raw materials have quite limited supply The high quality (i.e. efficient) version (electrical steel) has limited supply, but if you didn't care about that, and just wanted something to work now, there is much more supply. All the other materials are common and widely available. > Its large size and weight can further complicate I would expect the military to step in with some heavy lift vehicles. All of what you say is for normal times, but in an emergency (i.e. cost is no object) we could do things a LOT faster.
marvin 12y ago
I don't think it would really be this dire if push came to shove. A whole country without transformers and lacking ability to import them would be like a war effort. It would certainly be a huge disaster, but it wouldn't be cataclysmic. People would come out of their regular job roles and work with rebuilding. If you read up about e.g. the crazy efforts that went on during World War II, this would be a good example of how focused a large economy can be in times of crisis. Of course there would be less time available to make the next Instagram, but it would probably have some positive side effects too.

by ddeck 12y ago

ars 12y ago

> raw materials have quite limited supply The high quality (i.e. efficient) version (electrical steel) has limited supply, but if you didn't care about that, and just wanted something to work now, there is much more supply. All the other materials are common and widely available. > Its large size and weight can further complicate I would expect the military to step in with some heavy lift vehicles. All of what you say is for normal times, but in an emergency (i.e. cost is no object) we could do things a LOT faster.

marvin 12y ago

I don't think it would really be this dire if push came to shove. A whole country without transformers and lacking ability to import them would be like a war effort. It would certainly be a huge disaster, but it wouldn't be cataclysmic. People would come out of their regular job roles and work with rebuilding. If you read up about e.g. the crazy efforts that went on during World War II, this would be a good example of how focused a large economy can be in times of crisis. Of course there would be less time available to make the next Instagram, but it would probably have some positive side effects too.